reports
- Arnaud Goossens
Digital audio software, ad tech and monetisation engine, all-in-one
AudioValley is a Belgian technology company active in the field of digital audio disruption covering most of the industry’s value chain: from music licencing to software enabling the creation, streaming and hosting of digital audio content over the internet for a range of publishers including online radio channels, podcasts, connected hardware, etc. The digital audio market is growing fast, catching up (Europe) or taking over (North America) analogue audio in terms of audience. We expect digital...
- Arnaud Goossens
Steady as she goes
Atenor is active in the entire real estate development process, from identifying and acquiring locations to developing and selling them, albeit with no direct involvement in construction. The focus is offices (74% of its portfolio). Exposure to its domestic market, Belgium, is gradually fading. We believe Atenor is well-positioned in European office real-estate development to take advantage of the underlying trend, with market demand increasingly shifting to assets with higher technical and qual...
- Arnaud Goossens
Portfolio scale-up enhances profit generation and eases risk profile
Atenor is a European real estate development company active in the sector's entire process, from identifying and acquiring locations to developing and selling them, with no direct involvement in construction. The company's portfolio includes 29 projects for more than 1.2m m², up from 9 projects in 2009. Atenor’s core focus is offices and, to a lesser extent, residential. Exposure to its domestic market, Belgium (33% of portfolio), is gradually fading, though at a higher pace since 2016 thanks to...
- Arnaud Goossens
Sales momentum strengthens in 3Q17
Sioen reported a strong top-line performance in 3Q17. Group sales reached €116.3m in 3Q17, up 32.2% y-o-y, and 9% above our forecast . Half of the beat is from a stronger performance of acquisitions, while the other half is from organic growth in Apparel, driven by new contract wins. Guidance remain purely qualitative: the company expects similar underlying trends in 4Q17 as in 9M17 which is, nevertheless, very supportive (5.8% organic growth was achieved in 9M17 vs. our previous forecast of 2.9...
- Arnaud Goossens
Transformational deal(s)
Roularta announced the disposal of its 50% stake in Medialaan (TV broadcasting) and the acquisition of a 50% stake in Mediafin (financial newspapers), with a substantial impact on the positioning of Roularta (more focus on content and Print Media), its value proposition (focus on the group's core business with, potentially, stronger synergies) as well as its balance sheet structure (fully deleveraged, with a net cash position estimated at €170m). Our fair value estimate is raised to €22.1/share ...
- Arnaud Goossens
Returns under temporary pressure
Sioen reported weak 1H17 results with strong organic sales growth (+4.4%) muted by stronger-than-expected gross margin pressure from rising raw material prices. We have cut our EPS forecasts significantly, well below consensus. The good news is, however, that the company is passing through the higher raw material costs to its customers through price hikes implemented from July, which should have a positive impact on gross margins from August. As such, we expect sequentially flat gross margins in...
- Arnaud Goossens
When the going gets tough
Roularta reprted a weak set of 1H17 results (net profit down 90%), reflecting pressure on Belgian advertising revenues in Print Media and TV broadcasting. However, cash flow is resilient (operating cash flow -10%) and the group's leading market share is not at risk. Our EPS forecasts have been cut by 63%, 50% and 53% for 2017e, 2018e and 2019e respectively to take into account the weak ad spend environment and further margin pressure. Our fair equity value is set at €17.3/share, in line with the...
- Arnaud Goossens
All eyes on 2019
​Roularta published 2016 results that were below our forecasts due mainly to heavy opex investments in digital initiatives. We see two factors that provide support to the share price: (1) the media sector M&A rerating which is underway and (2) an improvement in the underlying profitability of Roularta, culminating in the expected 44% EPS jump in 2019e. Roularta should continue to invest heavily in Storesquare, but we see uppide when the market starts to look beyond 2018, with our 2019-based S...
- Arnaud Goossens
Slower end to 2016
​Sioen’s FY16 results reflected strong double-digit growth in terms of sales and profits, driven both by a strong industry dynamics, enhanced profitability and growth from acquisitions. The results came out, however, below our and consensus forecasts due mainly to (1) lower-than-expected sales in 4Q16 (organic and external, ie. from Fontana and Dimension), (2) weaker-than-expected gross margins in 2H16, driven mainly by rising raw material prices, and (3) slightly higher-than-expected financ...
- Arnaud Goossens
Leap into Scandinavia
​Sioen has recently announced two acquisitions, both based in Finland and included in Sioen’s Apparel division (30% of group sales in 2015). The acquisition rationale is to add new high-end Apparel activities in consolidating markets, with a focus on public tendering, while opening a second “home market†in Scandinavia and diluting exposure to more cyclical activities such as truck-trailer tarpaulins (now 14% of group sales). Sioen has acquired €33m in sales (9% of group sales) with an...
- Arnaud Goossens
European champion in technical textile
​Sioen is a Belgian family-owned business (65% of shares are family-held), which has a number one or two market position in various European technical textile end markets, which are expected to deliver GDP-plus growth. We expect the company to deliver 9% EPS growth (2016-18e CAGR), driven by 6% sales growth (including 3% organic growth), 11% EBITDA growth driven by operating leverage effect, cost control and a positive mix-effect and 7% EBIT growth inhibited by higher depreciation due to a ren...
- Arnaud Goossens
Strong TV ad revs offset by weak Print in 1H16
Roularta's 1H16 EPS were 4% below our expectations, driven mainly by weak Print Media sales (down 4% vs flat expected) and start-up costs at Storesquare, offsetting strong underlying TV ad growth at Medialaan. We have revised down our 2016 and 2017 EPS forecasts by 6.1% and 2.4% respectively. Our revised 2017e earnings figures lead to a slightly downward-adjusted valuation, which now points to a fair share price of €28, down from €29.
- Arnaud Goossens
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