Takeaways from BHG's first CMD

E-commerce traffic - April 2024

We have evaluated Similarweb data for April. Aggregated traffic to e-com sites up 4% y-o-y. Rugvista traffic growth continues, don't fear RVRC's -19% y-o-y.

Racing a tough market (and winning?)

Continued market softness, Q1 org. growth -14% y-o-y. Significant 260bp EBITA margin improvement y-o-y. We reiterate BUY, covenant relief until '26 gives leverage headroom.

There is no hiding from a soft market

BHG Group - Q3 report undramatic after trading update

Things will get worse before they get better Minor estimate changes on limited incremental info Trading at 10x-6x ‘23e-‘24e EV/EBITA, BUY, TP 20

BHG Group - Limited incremental information

Trading update 11/10 means much was pre-reported Key takeaways: soft margin a result of a variety of factors We see no reason for a share reaction

BHG Group - Market leaders cannot hide from headwinds

Q3 figures pre-reported as of 11 Oct Q3 sales were SEK 3,107m, adj. EBITA SEK 48m Confirms soft view, cash flow worse than feared

Sector Report - Website traffic overview for Q3

BHG Group - Show me the money

Q2 EBITA was 18% above expectations Working capital a core focus forward Estimates up 1-3%, TP unchanged at SEK 80

BHG Group - BHG Q2 Home Furnishing beat

Sales 10% vs ABGSC, 9% vs cons Adj. EBIT 17% vs ABGSC, 18% vs cons Cons likely up low-to-mid single digits

BHG Group - Perfect storm continues

Q2 report due on 20 July Q2e sales & adj. EBIT of SEK 3,547m & SEK 139m Ests. down 24-7% ‘22e-‘24e – TP of SEK 80 (110)

BHG Group - De-risking and creating opportunities

Exploring conditions to issue shares worth SEK 1bn Would de-leverage balance sheet by ~1x Positive for the long-term story

BHG Group - Stronger momentum than feared

Q1 report was 7% above expectations ‘22e-‘24e EBITA up 4-2% We raise our TP to SEK 110 (105): BUY

BHG Group - EBITA beat of 7% vs. cons.

Sales +2% vs. ABG -1% vs. cons. Adj. EBIT +15% vs. ABG +7% vs. cons We expect cons. estimates +0-2%

BHG Group - H1 fog is back

Q1 report due on 27 April Inflation hits consumer demand We lower our ’22e-’24e EBITA by 19-7%

BHG Group - H1’22 fog clearing

Q4 was strong, beating cons. by 17% We raise our EBIT adj. estimates by 7% TP up to SEK 125 (115), keep BUY

BHG Group - Home furnishing driving 17% EBITA beat

Sales 12% vs. ABGSCe, 13% vs. cons. Adj. EBIT 16% vs. ABGSCe, 17% vs. cons. Cons. likely up 5-10%, share likely +10%

BHG Group - The price is not right

Initiating rated coverage of BHG Group Derating offers attractive entry point BUY; TP SEK 115 per share

BHG Group - Terminating coverage

ABGSC ceases coverage of BHG Group Coverage will be transferred to institutional research Last published estimates are shown in this report

BHG Group - Margin trough

3.1pp margin drop and soft cash flows We fear that org. growth rates could come down in Q4 Adj. EBIT estimates trimmed by 5% and 4% (’22-’23e)