Large upside despite negative revisions

Up its ROE guidance to 15-17% (as a Swedish bank)

Q1'25: Adj PTP -8% vs. ABG from weaker NII, better AQ and just soft opex. Up its ROE guidance as a Swedish bank and to launch refi product in Norway. Cons revision minor down: 0-2%, stock could be 0% to +2% on new guidance

With Morrow almost Swedish, we raise our TP

Stockholm responds positively

Receive Swedish bank licence today from th SFSA. Plan to list at Nasdaq Stockholm, and operate from Jan 2026. Open for more efficient equity use; Swedish SOTP NOK 17-20/share

More capital to distribute or reinvest

Further favourable capital details given

Q4'24: PBLL -4% vs. ABG (weaker NII) and positive DPS NOK 0.4; Solid 5.4% CET1 headroom as a Norwegian bank; 1-3% negative revisions for 25-26e, but stock up +2-4% (DPS)

At an important crossroads

Stockholm calling

A Swedish approval will lead to a higher ROE

Q3'24: PBLL +8% vs. cons / +6% vs. ABG (stronger NII and cost); New guidance for '26e, >17bn in lending and ROE to 12-14%; 1-4% positive revisions for 24e-26e; stock to follow +2-4%

Estimates up with acquired book

Q3e: Expect NII down 1% q-o-q; Estimates upped with acquired book, muted by funding costs; TP represents '24e P/B 1x vs. fair 1.3x

MOBA acquire SEK ~1.6bn of Lunar loans

Acquire SEK 1.6bn of Lunar loans; Subject to Danish FSA approval; Cons EPS up 17% and 15% for '25e and '26e

Estimates up with acquired book

Softer margins but guidance reiterated

Q2'24: PBLL +1% vs. cons / -3% vs. ABG (softer NII, stronger fee); Reiterate guidance'25 lending NOK 15bn and ROE to 10-12%; 1-3% negative revisions for 24e-26e; stock to follow

First delivery, more to come

Adj PTP in line with our expectations and ahead of consensus. Estimates fine-tuned. Huge upside if MOBA can manage to show profitable growth. BUY.

Steady delivery usually gets a reward

Q1'24: adj. PTP +4% vs cons / +0% vs ABGSCe (better NII, softer fee). Reiterate guidance'25 lending NOK 15bn and ROE to 10-12%. Consensus could come up 1-3% for 24e- 25e; stock up 1-3%.

Komplett Bank - Better growth but still higher losses from sale

Q3: Adj. PTP miss ABG by 27%, FactSet cons by 18% Miss driven old NPLs sales, as PBLL +4% and +11% Cons. est. up 2-8%; Stock likely to follow 2-5%

Sector Fast Comment - Norway: Pillar 2 may be ~44% debt-financed

New NFSA detailed description for pillar 2-risks and calcs Might enable financing of P2R with AT1 and Tier2-capital Could increase ROE by 0.4-0.6pp, and lift value by 5-7%

Komplett Bank - Lift near term lending, lower ‘24 expectations

Q2: weaker than expected, but lending has turned Up adj. EPS in ’23e by 17% (opex), cut ’24e by 12% (NII) Looks inexpensive at 0.6x P/NAV – BUY

Komplett Bank - Management lifts its ROE ambitions

Q1 below cons. expectations; but books are now cleaned Adj. EPS’22e-23e up 7-11% due to de-risked case 20% valuation discount at ~0.8x P/NAV – BUY

Komplett Bank - Books are cleaned; new growth ambitions next

Q1: Adj. PBLL +25% vs ABG, -21% vs. FactSet cons. Reviewing new markets and products after NPL sale Cons. est. down 5-15% for ‘22e-23e; Stock:-5-10%