reports
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
US shale: resilient growth in 2025e
Based on our Q4 survey of US shale companies, we expect continued efficiency gains, productivity improvements, and operational synergies from consolidation to drive ~5% YOY liquids production growth in 2025, broadly in line with 2024 levels. This is despite an estimated 5% YOY decline in capex, indicating that production is expanding steadily without a corresponding increase in activity. The combination of rising production and declining capex is likely to drive down breakeven levels, strengthen...
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Panoro Energy reported Q4 results and 2025 guidance in line with expectations. While production may trend towards the lower end of the guided 11–13kboed, the stock’s ~30% NAV discount suggests solid execution could drive a re-rating. Meanwhile, BlueNord expects to complete the Tyra completion test by mid-March, having already surpassed the 34.0kboed gas export threshold – a key milestone that would enable shareholder distributions. In exploration, Vår Energi announced a ~13–45mmboe di...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/02/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d - Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well. As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days. Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seis...
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CASP CASPIAN SUNRISE
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
CRCL CORCEL
PXEN PROSPEX ENERGY PLC
ATOM ATOME ENERGY PLC
IGAS IGAS ENERGY PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
BP. BP PLC
HEVI HELIUM EVOLUTION
CDR INC. (HEVI)
CNECN CONDOR ENERGIES INC
CANACOL
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) released preliminary January production figures for the NCS, showing a 6.5% YOY decline, with overall production at 4.17mmboed on weaker gas output. Uncertainty remains over Kurdistan oil exports, with reports suggesting a potential March restart, although Turkey has yet to receive confirmation. In exploration, the NOD confirmed the Bounty Updip prospect as dry.
- Steffen Evjen
January NCS production down YOY
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary January NCS figures showed liquids production of 1,990kboed (0.5% above its forecast) and soft gas production of 346mcm/d (2.6% below its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed (1% below its forecast), down 2.8% MOM and 6.5% YOY. Company-wise, December production should be well known following the Q4 results for our NCS coverage.
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics and discussion
This week, Aker BP reported solid Q4 results, with 2025 production guidance in line with our estimates and consensus, although 2025 capex was slightly above. Vår Energi reported softer Q4 results than expected but raised its quarterly dividend from USD270m to USD300m (~15% yield). However, we remain cautious on long-term dividend sustainability, given the expected decline in FCF from 2027e due to raised capex guidance. Meanwhile, BlueNord announced its first dividend of USD215m (~15% yield), sch...
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/02/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas - ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities. One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production. ...
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Markus Remis
- Thomas Zlowodzki
LRC LEGRAND
IPN IPSEN SA
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
LI KLEPIERRE SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
ORA ORANGE SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
RXL REXEL SA
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
STR STRABAG SE
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
DHER DELIVERY HERO SE
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
SGSN SGS SA
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Markus Remis
- Thomas Zlowodzki
LRC LEGRAND
IPN IPSEN SA
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
LI KLEPIERRE SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
ORA ORANGE SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
RXL REXEL SA
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
STR STRABAG SE
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
DHER DELIVERY HERO SE
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
SGSN SGS SA
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thijs Berkelder
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thijs Berkelder
- Steffen Evjen
Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Set for operating tailwinds in 2025
Aker BP reported Q4 EBITDA slightly above our forecast and consensus. For 2025, the production was guided at 390–420kboed, capturing our estimate of 418kboed and consensus of 407kboed, while capex for 2025 edged slightly higher than expected. Still, we find Aker BP attractively valued, trading at a P/NAV of ~0.95x and a dividend yield of 11%, with dividends set to grow by 5% YOY over the few next years. We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.
- Jerôme Bodin
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
AFX CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
KER KERING SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BP. BP P.L.C.
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
- Jerôme Bodin
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
AFX CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
KER KERING SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BP. BP P.L.C.
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
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