AMSC ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of AMSC. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Soft NCS production in December

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for December showed soft liquids production of 2,018kboed (2% below forecast) and solid gas production of 361mcm/d (2% above forecast). Overall production was 4.29mmboed, up 1.2% MOM (in line with its forecast), but down 5.3% YOY. On a company level, Equinor, Vår Energi and DNO saw higher production MOM in November, while Aker BP (which has already reported Q4 production) and OKEA saw lower production MOM.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

NCS: Mixed December production

Aker BP Minor model adjustments

Following Aker BP’s Q4 trading update, we have adjusted our estimates. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK280 target price.

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, we released a sector update for our E&P coverage. We made minor changes to our oil and gas prices assumptions, but struggled to find an appealing risk/reward among our large caps, especially gas-heavy names. We favour Aker BP and Panoro Energy as our top picks, while Equinor remains a funding candidate. In other news, Equinor and Aker BP released Q4 trading statements. We view Equinor’s figures as neutral, and Aker BP’s as strong, due to solid production and realised oil and gas price...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 17/01/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.00p per share: Initiating Coverage - Corcel is a ~£6 mm market cap AIM-listed E&P company focused on Portuguese-speaking Angola and Brazil. It offers a unique exposure to the prolific Kwanza onshore basin in Angola which reopened to international companies in 2021. Corcel is also building a portfolio of mature onshore producing assets in Brazil. The key asset in Angola is the KON-16 licence, which C...

Energy Morning - 16 January 2025

Limited prospects for re-rating

While our coverage universe has seen a strong start to the year, we have made minor alterations to our oil and gas price assumptions, as sanction-related upside potential appears to be priced in the Brent oil and share prices. Thus, we struggle to find an appealing risk/reward among the large caps, especially gas-heavy names, prompting us to downgrade Vår Energi and BlueNord to HOLD (BUY). We favour Aker BP and Panoro Energy as our top picks, while Equinor remains a funding candidate.

Energy Morning - 15 January 2025

NCS licensing round: fewer players, but high activity

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 14 January 2025

Energy Morning - 13 January 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported a preliminary internal gas price of USD12.05/mmbtu for Q4, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and 10% below the TTF day-ahead for the quarter. It also announced that the ongoing outage at its Hammerfest LNG facility was being extended by 10 days to 19 January. In other news, BlueNord reported preliminary net production of 28.9kboed for December, and 26.0kboed for Q4, slightly below our estimate of 29.0kboed.

Crude Quarterly Q4'24: oil market stabilising

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 10 January

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BlueNord announced that plateau production at Tyra is now expected to be delayed by around three weeks due to adverse weather, shifting the timeline to the second half of January 2025. Consequently, we expect a dividend announcement around or with its Q4 results (due on 12 February). In other news, the Arkenstone drilling campaign has been temporarily suspended after encountering shallow gas. Also, DNO and OKEA have agreed to swap 10% interests in the Mistral and Horatio prospects.

Solid NCS production in November

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for November showed liquids and gas production slightly above its own forecasts. Liquids production was 1,975kboed (2.1% above its forecast) and gas production was 360mcm/d (3.0% above). Overall production was 4.24mmboed, up 2.1% MOM (2.6% above). Company-wise, production was up MOM in October for all companies, following the maintenance-heavy September. Also, the water-cut for Johan Sverdrup seems to have stabilised in recent mo...