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Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...

ABGSC Energy Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • John Olaisen
  • Njål Kleiven
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thijs Berkelder
Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thijs Berkelder
Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Well-supported dividends

Q1 results were in line with expectations. While near-term FCF could alarm investors, we believe dividends remain well-supported by the strong balance sheet. From 2027–2028e, FCF is set to rise meaningfully as production ramps up, with our estimates indicating an oil price of ~USD60/bbl would be sufficient to cover the dividend. We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Hornsea 4 cancellation adds to uncertainty

Ørsted today announced it is cancelling development of the 2.4GW Hornsea 4 project off the UK due to increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and greater construction and operational risk (FID was expected later in 2025). The cancellation adds to uncertainty for the offshore wind services industry and overall project profitability within offshore wind. No installation contracts for Hornsea 4 had been disclosed yet, but with Cadeler responsible for foundations and half the turbines on...

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Varying dividend sustainability

With oil prices approaching USD60/bbl, we believe investors will be looking for E&P exposure with the least risk of cuts to shareholder distributions. We continue to prefer Aker BP, as we consider its dividend safe despite prospects of muted near-term cash flow, and believe it has the most flexibility to adjust capex to protect cash flow and dividends medium-term.

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thijs Berkelder
Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Thijs Berkelder
ABGSC Energy Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • John Olaisen
  • Njål Kleiven
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

ABGSC Energy Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • John Olaisen
  • Njål Kleiven
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Oliver Dunvold
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Oliver Dunvold
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