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Seasonal decline could be inevitable, longer-term stories intact

​Arguably, 2016 has not been a bad year for GIS as compared to most of the Apple plays, as we forecast its 2016F earnings can still grow by 10% YoY.

A noticeable GM uptick in 3Q16F

​The key highlight will be its GM, as it will likely return to the previous high level of over 10%, which is impressive considering there are few spec upgrades in iPhone 7’s force touch (so supposedly pricing is under pressure).

Headwinds in 1H, but it still leads Apple plays - 6456 TT; BUY

​We said many times that GIS would be one of the very few Apple names that could post positive YoY top-line and earnings growth in 1H16, and this holds true. That said, 2Q16F demand is still slower than we previously expected.

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