reports
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Noise vs Fundamentals
Robust H1’24 performance; stock weighed down by newsflow – PPC reported H1’24 recurring EBITDA of €927m (+57% yoy/+24% organic), being well on track to comfortably reach its €1.8bn FY’24 EBITDA guidance. Along with its results, PPC announced the acquisition of a 629MW RES portfolio in Romania and a new CMD in November to provide a Strategy update following recent developments. Despite the stellar operational delivery, the price performance has been weak YTD weighed down by news flow that has ove...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Noise vs Fundamentals
Robust H1’24 performance; stock weighed down by newsflow – PPC reported H1’24 recurring EBITDA of €927m (+57% yoy/+24% organic), being well on track to comfortably reach its €1.8bn FY’24 EBITDA guidance. Along with its results, PPC announced the acquisition of a 629MW RES portfolio in Romania and a new CMD in November to provide a Strategy update following recent developments. Despite the stellar operational delivery, the price performance has been weak YTD weighed down by news flow that has ove...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Larger, greener, stronger
New Strategic Plan accelerates green growth… – PPC’s updated Strategic Plan outlines the path to the company becoming a leading green integrated supplier in the SEE. Through the announced €9bn capex plan, management targets €2.3bn EBITDA by 2026e (15% 3-year CAGR vs PF 2023e EBITDA of €1.5bn), RES installed capacity of 5.5GW and full delignitisation. Despite the stock’s c35% rally over 5 months, we stress that there is far more upside, arguing that the current valuation does not capture the evol...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Larger, greener, stronger
New Strategic Plan accelerates green growth… – PPC’s updated Strategic Plan outlines the path to the company becoming a leading green integrated supplier in the SEE. Through the announced €9bn capex plan, management targets €2.3bn EBITDA by 2026e (15% 3-year CAGR vs PF 2023e EBITDA of €1.5bn), RES installed capacity of 5.5GW and full delignitisation. Despite the stock’s c35% rally over 5 months, we stress that there is far more upside, arguing that the current valuation does not capture the evol...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2024 outlook | Junk no more
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Integrated Powerhouse in the Making
9m’23 EBITDA at €937mn (+45% yoy); on track to reach mgt FY’23 EBITDA guidance of €1.2bn – PPC released another solid quarter with Q3’23 EBITDA at €347mn (+61% yoy), staying well on track to reach FY'23 EBITDA guidance of €1.2bn. Meanwhile, PPC’s share price continues to hover near November 2021 levels, with investors effectively disregarding the profitability step-up (2023e adj. EBITDA +28% vs 2022 levels). The two recent M&A deals (Enel Romania and Kotsovolos) seem to be value-accretive, with ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Integrated Powerhouse in the Making
9m’23 EBITDA at €937mn (+45% yoy); on track to reach mgt FY’23 EBITDA guidance of €1.2bn – PPC released another solid quarter with Q3’23 EBITDA at €347mn (+61% yoy), staying well on track to reach FY'23 EBITDA guidance of €1.2bn. Meanwhile, PPC’s share price continues to hover near November 2021 levels, with investors effectively disregarding the profitability step-up (2023e adj. EBITDA +28% vs 2022 levels). The two recent M&A deals (Enel Romania and Kotsovolos) seem to be value-accretive, with ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – Post Greece’s IG upgrade | Stay on board
Stay on board – Greek stocks have had a rather muted summer (ASE +4.7% in July, -1.6% in August), as the prospect for higher-for-longer rates fanned worries about the global economy, leading to widening equity risk premia amidst poorer liquidity conditions given the low seasonality. With Greek stocks already up 35% ytd (banks +55%), the short-term risk-reward looks symmetrical as the fragile international sentiment is balanced with the strong domestic fundamentals, attractive valuations and posi...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – Post Greece’s IG upgrade | Stay on board
Stay on board – Greek stocks have had a rather muted summer (ASE +4.7% in July, -1.6% in August), as the prospect for higher-for-longer rates fanned worries about the global economy, leading to widening equity risk premia amidst poorer liquidity conditions given the low seasonality. With Greek stocks already up 35% ytd (banks +55%), the short-term risk-reward looks symmetrical as the fragile international sentiment is balanced with the strong domestic fundamentals, attractive valuations and posi...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
POWER PUBLIC CORPORATION (PPC) | The Power of Resilience
Navigating Adversity with Resilience… – PPC demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2022, managing to comfortably beat the profit guidance while delivering +9% yoy growth in adj. EBITDA. Underpinned by the Group’s strong profit execution in 2022, the improvement of working capital dynamics in H2’22 and the perceived stability in the Greek political backdrop, PPC’s share price has rallied >100% since the July 2022 lows, but we argue there is plenty of scope for further re-rating in view of PPC’s em...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
POWER PUBLIC CORPORATION (PPC) | The Power of Resilience
Navigating Adversity with Resilience… – PPC demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2022, managing to comfortably beat the profit guidance while delivering +9% yoy growth in adj. EBITDA. Underpinned by the Group’s strong profit execution in 2022, the improvement of working capital dynamics in H2’22 and the perceived stability in the Greek political backdrop, PPC’s share price has rallied >100% since the July 2022 lows, but we argue there is plenty of scope for further re-rating in view of PPC’s em...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Powering Up: Expanding into the Balka...
PPC acquires Enel’s activities in Romania – PPC announced today that it has reached an agreement with Enel for the acquisition of the latter’s activities in Romania. The enterprise value of the deal has been agreed at €1.9bn, with the equity value at €1.26bn. The transaction is expected to be completed by Q3 2023, subject to regulatory approval, while it includes an earn-out mechanism based on future value uplift for the supply segment. The deal signifies the start of PPC’s expansion into the Ba...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Powering Up: Expanding into the Balka...
PPC acquires Enel’s activities in Romania – PPC announced today that it has reached an agreement with Enel for the acquisition of the latter’s activities in Romania. The enterprise value of the deal has been agreed at €1.9bn, with the equity value at €1.26bn. The transaction is expected to be completed by Q3 2023, subject to regulatory approval, while it includes an earn-out mechanism based on future value uplift for the supply segment. The deal signifies the start of PPC’s expansion into the Ba...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Energy/Industrials | Positioning ahead of the fall
Power market in flux; prefer Mytilineos and refineries – Greek industrial/energy-exposed companies have had an eventful 2022 driven by sub-sector dynamics, general macro prospects and idiosyncratic factors. In power generation/supply, the sector remains in flux given the recent regulatory intervention, and, although generation and supply dynamics appear to broadly offset each other, there are several moving parts, not only regarding gas/carbon prices but also regulatory aspects that will determi...
PPC | Buying opportunity on overdone negativity
In the spotlight amid rising commodity costs – PPC has remained in the spotlight, amid rising commodity costs, given that the company is long on customers and is exposed to rising electricity prices. Despite this, we believe PPC is well positioned to meet its €0.8-0.9bn EBITDA guidance in 2021, and sustain a similar level of profitability in 2022, owing to continuous Govt support (this enables PPC to make full use of the pass-through mechanism) as well as active hedging efforts (hedging helps mi...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Panagiotis Kladis
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy | Thoughts on-the-go
Testing times – After a bout of enthusiasm in early and mid-2021, underpinned by the vaccine rollout and corporate earnings/macro support, momentum in Greek equities has waned recently with the benchmark index down -4% in the last month (vs -2% for the Stoxx 600) following Friday’s sell-off triggered by the “Omicron” variant. The latter added to stagflation concerns and ebbing risk appetite in the face of the COVID spike witnessed in previous weeks, which have been weighing on the Greek stock ma...
PPC | Reshaping the RES landscape
€1.35bn capital raising – The book building process in the context of PPC’s €1.1-1.35bn capital raising took place last week. PPC raised €1.35bn at a €9.0 issue price (150mn new shares to be issued), which translates to c60% of the market cap. Reportedly, total bids exceeded €4bn, indicating c3x oversubscription for the combined offering. As per the indicative timeline included in the issue Prospectus, PPC will announce details on the outcome of the Public Offering on Wednesday 10th November. Ne...
PPC | Reshaping the RES landscape
€1.35bn capital raising – The book building process in the context of PPC’s €1.1-1.35bn capital raising took place last week. PPC raised €1.35bn at a €9.0 issue price (150mn new shares to be issued), which translates to c60% of the market cap. Reportedly, total bids exceeded €4bn, indicating c3x oversubscription for the combined offering. As per the indicative timeline included in the issue Prospectus, PPC will announce details on the outcome of the Public Offering on Wednesday 10th November. Ne...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Powered up
€1.1-1.35bn raising – PPC’s capital raising will run this week (book building process likely between 2nd and 4th Nov), with the group seeking to raise €1.1-1.35bn (topped up from €750m initially announced), which translates to 51-62% of the market cap. The offer price range was set between €8.5 and €9 (4-9% discount vs the last close). The big picture – 5.7 GW RES (ex Hydro) by 2026e – PPC decided to proceed with a capital raising in order to press ahead with a more aggressive RES roll-out an...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Powered up
€1.1-1.35bn raising – PPC’s capital raising will run this week (book building process likely between 2nd and 4th Nov), with the group seeking to raise €1.1-1.35bn (topped up from €750m initially announced), which translates to 51-62% of the market cap. The offer price range was set between €8.5 and €9 (4-9% discount vs the last close). The big picture – 5.7 GW RES (ex Hydro) by 2026e – PPC decided to proceed with a capital raising in order to press ahead with a more aggressive RES roll-out an...
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