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Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - February pulp data: shipments +1% y-o-y

Global shipments +1% y-o-y, China -6% Inventories -5% m-o-m, 26% above hist. avg. Pulp prices in Europe have risen back up to ATH

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Norske Skog - Bruck downtime - CO2 prices up again

Bruck downtime due to expensive gas Q1 clean EBITDA to be in-line with Q4 of NOK 422m CO2 prices up ~25% again

Martin Melbye
  • Martin Melbye

Powerpoint Sector Report - Leading indicators for OECD industrial prod...

OECD: The indicator points down (from a high level), momentum fades USA: The indicator points down from a high level (housing starts, house prices, monetary policy) EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields)

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - January pulp data: shipments -4% y-o-y

Global shipments -4% y-o-y, China -13% Inventories 5% m-o-m, 30% above hist. avg. Pulp prices +3% again in Europe, +23% in China

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - December pulp data: shipments -2% y-o-y

Global shipments -2% y-o-y, China -15% Inventories -5% m-o-m, 26% above hist. avg. Pulp prices down +3% again in Europe, +20% in China

Glenn Kringhaug
  • Glenn Kringhaug

Norske Skog - Christmas came early

Very strong Q4 as price hikes came into effect early It will get even better the next couple of quarters Large capex projects ongoing, but strong market helps

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Norske Skog - Shifting gear – from 1st to 6th in 4 quarters

Q4 EBITDA 59% above – ’22 set to be very strong Newsprint prices up 35% in January to ATH SOTP of NOK 70-100/share incl. growth projects

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Norske Skog - Higher prices does the trick

Q4 EBITDA 59% above cons – higher prices Publication paper prices up 35% m-o-m in January Q1 EBITDA likely up more. MTM EBITDA NOK 1.5-2bn

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - Publication paper prices +30-40% m-o-m

Publication paper prices up 30-40% m-o-m in January Newsprint prices at all-time highs Winners are UPM, Norske, Holmen and Stora

Bengt Jonassen
  • Bengt Jonassen

Strategy Report PowerPoint - Best ideas, Norway

More muted growth outlook for 2022 Key risk for 2022 is disappointing earnings We favour seafood and consumer staples

Benedicte Aass ... (+3)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Norske Skog - Every skog has its day II

Very large price increases and large growth projects MTM EBITDA of NOK 1.8bn (up from NOK 0.4bn in ‘21e) SOTP of NOK 65-80/share incl. growth projects

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - October pulp data: shipments -6% y-o-y

Global shipments -6% y-o-y, to China -16% Inventories flat m-o-m, 28% above hist. avg. Chinese and US pulp prices down 15-30% from peak

Benedicte Aass ... (+3)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Norske Skog - CMD: Every skog has its day

CMD: Growth projects and price momentum Very large price increases on newsprint and magazine SOTP of NOK 65-80/share incl. growth projects

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - Very large paper price increases

Very large price increases on newsprint and magazine Tighter paper markets + higher input costs Winners are UPM, Norske, Holmen and Stora

Benedicte Aass ... (+2)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye

Sector Fast Comment - September pulp data: shipments -5% y-o-y

Global shipments -4.5% y-o-y, to China -17% Inventories -6% m-o-m, 28% above hist. avg. Chinese and US pulp prices down 15-30% from peak

Glenn Kringhaug
  • Glenn Kringhaug

Norske Skog - 2021 is a lost year – 2022 will be better

Weak Q3 as expected Significant price increases Uncertain financial performance until bond maturity

Benedicte Aass ... (+3)
  • Benedicte Aass
  • Martin Melbye
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Norske Skog - Very large price increases for ‘22

Q3 EBITDA up - higher paper prices (input costs too) Very large prices hikes - up another 20-30% SOTP value of NOK 65-80/share incl. growth projects

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