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Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Morningstar | TI Updated Star Rating from 20 Jun 2019

Italy accounts for the lion's share of Telecom Italia's revenue. Within Italy, the fixed-line business remains more than twice the size of the mobile business. While the core retail fixed-line business continues to shed customers and see sales declines, some of these losses are being offset by growth in other areas, such as broadband and pay television.TI is one of the most leveraged telecom operators in Europe. While it has sold assets and canceled its dividend, EBITDA continues to struggle due...

Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Morningstar | Telecom Italia Faces Increasing Competition in Italy

Italy accounts for the lion's share of Telecom Italia's revenue. Within Italy, the fixed-line business remains more than twice the size of the mobile business. While the core retail fixed-line business continues to shed customers and see sales declines, some of these losses are being offset by growth in other areas, such as broadband and pay television.TI is one of the most leveraged telecom operators in Europe. While it has sold assets and canceled its dividend, EBITDA continues to struggle due...

Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Telecom Italia Faces Increasing Competition in Italy

We are placing our fair value estimate for Telecom Italia under review. We will publish an updated report and valuation by June 15....

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telecom Italia Under Review

We are placing our fair value estimate for Telecom Italia under review. We will publish an updated report and valuation by June 15.

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telecom Italia Under Review

We are placing our fair value estimate for Telecom Italia under review. We will publish an updated report and valuation by June 15....

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | TI Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 27 Feb 2019

Italy accounts for the lion's share of Telecom Italia's revenue. Within Italy, the fixed-line business remains more than twice the size of the mobile business. While the core retail fixed-line business continues to shed customers and see sales declines, some of these losses are being offset by growth in other areas, such as broadband and pay television. TI is one of the most leveraged telecom operators in Europe. While it has sold assets and canceled its dividend, EBITDA continues to struggle wi...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telecom Italia's Results Under Pressure From Iliad's Ent...

Italy accounts for the lion's share of Telecom Italia's revenue. Within Italy, the fixed-line business remains more than twice the size of the mobile business. While the core retail fixed-line business continues to shed customers and see sales declines, some of these losses are being offset by growth in other areas, such as broadband and pay television. TI is one of the most leveraged telecom operators in Europe. While it has sold assets and canceled its dividend, EBITDA continues to struggle wi...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telecom Italia's Results Under Pressure From Iliad's Entrance; Reducin...

Telecom Italia reported 2018 revenue spot on with our projections, but margins dropped significantly in the fourth quarter, falling short of our expectations. In the quarter, the firm’s EBITDA margin was just 34.7% versus 42.4% for the first nine months of the year. This brought the full-year EBITDA margin down to 40.4% versus our estimate of 41.2%. Management expects EBITDA to decline further in 2019 before returning to growth in 2020. While Telecom Italia has held up better than the other op...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telecom Italia Reports Weak 4Q EBITDA; We Are Likely to ...

Telecom Italia reported 2018 revenue spot on with our projections, but margins dropped significantly in the fourth quarter, falling short of our expectations. In the quarter, the firm’s EBITDA margin was just 34.7% versus 42.4% for the first nine months of the year. This brought the full-year EBITDA margin down to 40.4% versus our estimate of 41.2%. Management expects EBITDA to decline further in 2019 before returning to growth in 2020. While Telecom Italia has held up better than the other op...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telecom Italia Reports Weak 4Q EBITDA; We Are Likely to Reduce FVE; Sh...

Telecom Italia reported 2018 revenue spot on with our projections, but margins dropped significantly in the fourth quarter, falling short of our expectations. In the quarter, the firm’s EBITDA margin was just 34.7% versus 42.4% for the first nine months of the year. This brought the full-year EBITDA margin down to 40.4% versus our estimate of 41.2%. Management expects EBITDA to decline further in 2019 before returning to growth in 2020. While Telecom Italia has held up better than the other op...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telecom Italia Reports Weak Preliminary Results; Reducin...

Telecom Italia reported preliminary results that were below our expectations, and we are reducing our fair value estimate for the local shares to EUR 0.85 from EUR 0.89 and to $9.70 per ADR from $10. We are maintaining our narrow moat rating. While we believe the shares are undervalued, we think the firm’s stock has much greater risk than most other European telecom firms, and the range of potential outcomes is wider. Thus, we give the stock a very high uncertainty rating. We believe there are...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telecom Italia Reports Weak Preliminary Results; Reducing Fair Value E...

Telecom Italia reported preliminary results that were below our expectations, and we are reducing our fair value estimate for the local shares to EUR 0.85 from EUR 0.89 and to $9.70 per ADR from $10. We are maintaining our narrow moat rating. While we believe the shares are undervalued, we think the firm’s stock has much greater risk than most other European telecom firms, and the range of potential outcomes is wider. Thus, we give the stock a very high uncertainty rating. We believe there are...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Reducing Telecom Italia's Fair Value Estimate After Weak Preliminary 2...

Telecom Italia reported third-quarter results that were roughly in line with our expectations, and we plan to maintain our EUR 0.89 local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. While we believe the shares are undervalued, we think there are better opportunities in European telecom namely Telefonica, Vodafone, and BT Group. The firm reported revenue fell 4.1% year over year but is only down 3.1% for the nine-month period versus our full-year projection of a 3.4% decline. We were impres...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Lowering Telecom Italia's Stewardship Rating to Poor Due...

Italy accounts for the lion's share of Telecom Italia's revenue. Within Italy, the fixed-line business remains more than twice the size of the mobile business. While the core retail fixed-line business continues to shed customers and see sales declines, some of these losses are being offset by growth in other areas, such as broadband and pay television. TI is one of the most leveraged telecom operators in Europe. While it has sold assets and canceled its dividend, EBITDA continues to struggle wi...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Lowering Telecom Italia's Stewardship Rating to Poor Due to Firing of ...

Telecom Italia reported third-quarter results that were roughly in line with our expectations, and we plan to maintain our EUR 0.89 local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. While we believe the shares are undervalued, we think there are better opportunities in European telecom namely Telefonica, Vodafone, and BT Group. The firm reported revenue fell 4.1% year over year but is only down 3.1% for the nine-month period versus our full-year projection of a 3.4% decline. We were impres...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telecom Italia Reported Roughly in Line 3Q Results; Even...

Telecom Italia reported third-quarter results that were roughly in line with our expectations, and we plan to maintain our EUR 0.89 local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. While we believe the shares are undervalued, we think there are better opportunities in European telecom namely Telefonica, Vodafone, and BT Group. The firm reported revenue fell 4.1% year over year but is only down 3.1% for the nine-month period versus our full-year projection of a 3.4% decline. We were impre...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telecom Italia Reported Roughly in Line 3Q Results; Even With EUR 2 Bi...

Telecom Italia reported third-quarter results that were roughly in line with our expectations, and we plan to maintain our EUR 0.89 local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. While we believe the shares are undervalued, we think there are better opportunities in European telecom namely Telefonica, Vodafone, and BT Group. The firm reported revenue fell 4.1% year over year but is only down 3.1% for the nine-month period versus our full-year projection of a 3.4% decline. We were impres...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Strong EBITDA margin demonstrates Telecom Italia's narro...

Italy accounts for the lion's share of Telecom Italia's revenue. Within Italy, the fixed-line business remains more than twice the size of the mobile business. While the core retail fixed-line business continues to shed customers and see sales declines, some of these losses are being offset by growth in other areas, such as broadband and pay television. TI is one of the most leveraged telecom operators in Europe. While it has sold assets and canceled its dividend, EBITDA continues to struggle wi...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Strong EBITDA margin demonstrates Telecom Italia's narrow moat, despit...

The latest Italian spectrum auction ended on Oct. 2 with total bids of EUR 6.55 billion, much higher than we anticipated. After reviewing the impact on our models, we are reducing our fair value estimate for Telecom Italia to EUR 0.89 per share from EUR 0.98, and for Iliad to EUR 143 per share from EUR 163. We are maintaining our fair value estimates of GBX 250 per share for Vodafone, CHF 470 per share for Swisscom, and HKD 118 for CK Hutchison. We are maintaining our no-moat rating on Hutchison...

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