reports
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2023 Updat...
In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
China: Structural Issues Overshadow The Cyclical Upturn
While 2022 was a year where China missed its growth targets by a wide margin (2.2% vs. 5.5% target), the reopening story was expected to be a big positive catalyst for China in 2023. However, following strong GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023, China’s post-pandemic recovery is already losing steam. The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps earlier this week. Even with a more supportive policy stance, we expect structural headwinds including China’s debt overh...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: April 2023 Upda...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Vitaline Yeterian
Japan: Incoming BoJ Governor Faces A Delicate Balancing Act
DBRS Morningstar released a commentary titled “Japan: Incoming BoJ Governor Faces A Delicate Balancing Act.” A combination of ultraloose monetary policies and external shocks have finally resulted in above target inflation in Japan. It is unclear if these dynamics will be sustained. However, if inflation persists, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could be compelled to dial back its expansionary monetary policy stance. In such a scenario, incoming Governor Ueda will face a delicate balancing act when he ...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: December 2022 U...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z LATVIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z ESTONIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1110Z KINGDOM OF
1266Z CYPRUS
IRELAND REPUBLIC OF
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
45793Z REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
CHILE
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
China's 20th Party Congress: Implications for the Chinese Growth Engin...
This commentary assesses the impact of China's 20th Party Congress held last month on the direction of China's economic policies and priorities over the next few years. The October 2022 National Party Congress further cemented Xi’s authority with the announcement of his unprecedented third term and the appointment of his close allies as the new members of the Politburo. The government agenda includes plans to grow China into a ‘medium-level developed country’ by 2035, develop self-sufficient sup...
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Rohini Malkani
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Changes Trend on China to Negative From Stable, Confi...
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) changed the trend on People’s Republic of China (China) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to Negative from Stable and confirmed the ratings at A (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar changed the trend on China’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to Negative from Stable and confirmed the ratings at R-1 (middle).
- Nichola James
- Rohini Malkani
- Nichola James
- Rohini Malkani
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Japan at A (high), Stable Trend
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed Japan’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at A (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Japan’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (middle). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Rohini Malkani
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Japan's Proposed Pivot Back To Nuclear Energy Is Positive for Energy S...
Japan's energy policy is undergoing a shift in response to the sharp increase in global energy prices over past year. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all G7 countries have committed to reduce their reliance on Russian energy by phasing out or banning imports of Russian sourced fuels. At present, Japan imports 90% of its energy requirements, with imports from Russia accounting for 10.2% of its coal imports, 8.7% of LNG, and 3.7% of petroleum gas. Japan was once a top producer and cons...
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Yolanda Ngo
Singapore's Increasing Attractiveness As An Asian Financial Center
Singapore's financial sector benefits from the government's stable political environment, sound financial regulation and continued human capital investment, particularly in emerging fields in finance. Meanwhile, political tensions in Hong Kong and rising financial centers in mainland China are causing businesses to consider branching out from Hong Kong. In this commentary, we highlight how Singapore's policy efforts and Hong Kong's recent challenges have brightened the outlook for Singapore as a...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: September 2022 ...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Yolanda Ngo
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Yolanda Ngo
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Republic of Singapore at AAA, Stable Trend
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Republic of Singapore’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AAA. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trend on all ratings remains Stable.
- Rohini Malkani
- Nichola James
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Taiwan-China: An Outright Invasion Would Be A Serious Threat To The Gl...
The recent escalation in tensions surrounding Taiwan's status raises the spectre of yet another regional conflict with adverse consequences for the global economy. An outright invasion of Taiwan by China would likely fuel significant militarisation within the region. Combined with ensuing sanctions, this would cause a major rupture in global supply chains and weaken global growth. The ultimate impact would depend on the length and severity of the conflict and any resulting sanctions and counter-...
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Japan: BoJ Remains Accommodative As Growth and Inflation Remain Subpar
On July 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates steady and maintained its policy stance on Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control (YCC). The policy appears appropriate given the demand deficiency and limited inflationary pressures Japan is currently experiencing. Nonetheless, the rising interest rate differential between the BoJ and other global central banks has caused the Japanese yen to weaken significantly to the lowest point in 25 years with the USD/JPY t...
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