reports
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2023 Updat...
In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
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ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
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EUROPE SPAIN
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1110Z CYPRUS
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IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
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CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
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LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
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5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
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1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
China: Structural Issues Overshadow The Cyclical Upturn
While 2022 was a year where China missed its growth targets by a wide margin (2.2% vs. 5.5% target), the reopening story was expected to be a big positive catalyst for China in 2023. However, following strong GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023, China’s post-pandemic recovery is already losing steam. The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps earlier this week. Even with a more supportive policy stance, we expect structural headwinds including China’s debt overh...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: April 2023 Upda...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
China's 20th Party Congress: Implications for the Chinese Growth Engin...
This commentary assesses the impact of China's 20th Party Congress held last month on the direction of China's economic policies and priorities over the next few years. The October 2022 National Party Congress further cemented Xi’s authority with the announcement of his unprecedented third term and the appointment of his close allies as the new members of the Politburo. The government agenda includes plans to grow China into a ‘medium-level developed country’ by 2035, develop self-sufficient sup...
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Rohini Malkani
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Changes Trend on China to Negative From Stable, Confi...
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) changed the trend on People’s Republic of China (China) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to Negative from Stable and confirmed the ratings at A (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar changed the trend on China’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings to Negative from Stable and confirmed the ratings at R-1 (middle).
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: September 2022 ...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Nichola James
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Taiwan-China: An Outright Invasion Would Be A Serious Threat To The Gl...
The recent escalation in tensions surrounding Taiwan's status raises the spectre of yet another regional conflict with adverse consequences for the global economy. An outright invasion of Taiwan by China would likely fuel significant militarisation within the region. Combined with ensuing sanctions, this would cause a major rupture in global supply chains and weaken global growth. The ultimate impact would depend on the length and severity of the conflict and any resulting sanctions and counter-...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns: June 2022 Updat...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • 2022 growth projections have deteriorated in recent months, dri...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
China: Increasing Headwinds for the Economy
The escalation of China’s zero COVID strategy following the Omicron outbreak is creating additional headwinds for the Chinese economy. The COVID situation in China has significantly deteriorated over the past month with daily average cases rising from less than 200 new cases per day to over 25,000 new cases currently. To stem the tide, local governments broadened what had been very localized restrictions, to full lockdowns of major cities. This includes Shanghai, China's financial and logistics ...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns March 2022 Updat...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary updating our Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • Baseline forecasts have deteriorated in rec...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
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EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
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- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Poses Some Headwinds to China's Economy
China's direct trade exposure to Russia and Ukraine is limited, but the global repercussions of the Russian invasion poses an additional risk to China's economy. Following a strong recovery post the initial wave of the pandemic, China’s growth momentum had begun to wane in H2 2021, driven by both demand and supply shocks. Recurring waves of widespread COVID-19 infections and China’s ‘zero tolerance' COVID strategy; weakness in China’s property markets; and enforcement of policies to cut carbon e...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns December 2021 Up...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. DBRS Morningstar's baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for DBRS Morningstar's ratings. When our baseline scenarios were last published 3 months ago (September 8, 20...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Confirms China at A (high), Stable Trend
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed China’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at A (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed China’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (middle). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Rohini Malkani
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
China's Balancing Act: Containing Property Sector Leverage While Prese...
Slowing property sales and tighter financing requirements has brought Evergrande Group, China’s largest property developer, to the brink of default. Several other developers have also missed bond payments. In this commentary, we look at the recent dynamics of the Chinese property market, the potential macroeconomic implications of a slowdown in the sector, and the delicate balance authorities face between taking a firm stance to contain leverage in the real estate sector while preserving financi...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns
This commentary introduces an updated approach to monitoring macroeconomic conditions and their potential impact on DBRS Morningstar ratings. Although the COVID-19 pandemic remains a source of uncertainty, the most affected sectors (e.g., travel, hospitality, etc.) are already plainly evident. For other sectors, the future macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is no longer expected to exceed the parameters of a normal economic downturn. Consequently, with this commentary, we are retiring our mode...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Rohini Malkani
- Thomas R. Torgerson
U.S.-China Relations: Resuming Integration or Globalization in Reverse...
This commentary provides an update on the U.S.-China relationship and discusses China's responses to limit the adverse impact of the changed global environment on its medium term growth prospects. We have passed the Biden administration's 100 day mark and, on the surface, little appears to have changed with regard to the economic relationship between the U.S. and China. Nonetheless, there is evidence of an important strategic shift in the U.S. approach toward China, and a subtle shift on the par...
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