Great value, but also very high risk

Q4 DPS miss due to SBB

EBITDA USD 131m (-1% vs. ABGSC, -8% vs. cons.); Q1e guidance implies EBITDA of USD 150m, 4% below cons; Q4 and DPS miss vs cons.; share price down 1-3% vs peers.

2025 could be wild. Or not.

Cheap, but that is not enough

ABGSC Shipping Daily 28 November

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets, LPG down, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.71x, Tanker spot rates down, seasonality not working, risk of Red Sea reopening, Dry bulk fundamentals remain solid, while Chinese steel demand also remains a worry, FRO Q3 review: No seasonal upswing cuts estimates,

A bright spot in a weak market

Q3 DPS beat and SBB bright spots in a weak market

EBITDA USD 257m (+4% vs. ABGSC, +2% vs. cons.). Q4e guidance implies EBITDA of USD 151m. Beat on Q3 DPS and SBB positive vs peers.

Record-low fleet growth and winter is coming

20% dividend yield and 26% discount to NAV

Record-low fleet growth and winter is coming. ABGSC 13% above cons. EBITDA for 2025e. TP of NOK 109 (111) – BUY reiterated.

Still going strong

Q3e up, long term reiterated. ABGSC 27% above cons. EBITDA for 2025e. TP of NOK 111 (107) – BUY reiterated.

Slight beat on Q2 and solid Q3 guiding

EBITDA USD 317m (2% vs. ABGSC, 4% vs. cons.). 3% upside to cons. Q3'24 EBITDA. Share to trade up 1-3% vs. peers.

Q3'24e EBITDA 8% higher

Sector Fast Comment - ABGSC Shipping Daily

Mixed tanker market, dry bulk and LPG down Shipping peer group trades as P/NAV 0.89x US LPG fundamentals still solid

Sector Fast Comment - ABGSC Shipping Daily

Tankers and LPG up, dry bulk down Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.88x Gas prices indicate floating storage only for Oct-Nov’23

Hafnia Ltd - 35% dividend yield in ’24e

80% payout from Q3’24e, results in 35% dividend yield ABGSCe 85% above cons. for ’24e net profit TP NOK 93 – P/NAV 0.89x

Sector Fast Comment - ABGSC Shipping Daily

Tankers and LPG up, dry bulk down Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.88x Oil tanker sector report: Not enough tankers in ‘24

Hafnia Ltd - New dividend policy towards 80% payout

Weaker than expected top line, Q3 EBITDA -2% vs cons New dividend policy a clear positive Reiterate positive outlook; Russian sanctions positive

Sector Report - There are not enough tankers in 2024e

There are not enough tankers in 2024e TP of USD 14.4 – BUY reiterated

Hafnia Ltd - Into uncharted territory

There are not enough tankers in 2024e ABGSC 36%-146% above cons. ’23-’24e EBITDA TP NOK 93 – P/NAV 0.91x, initiate with a BUY