reports
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2023 Updat...
In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
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- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: April 2023 Upda...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
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- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: December 2022 U...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
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- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: September 2022 ...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
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- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns: June 2022 Updat...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • 2022 growth projections have deteriorated in recent months, dri...
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- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Mexico at BBB Stable
DBRS Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the United Mexican States’ Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at BBB. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the United Mexican States’ Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-2 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
- Michael Heydt
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns March 2022 Updat...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary updating our Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • Baseline forecasts have deteriorated in rec...
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1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
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- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Latin American Sovereign Credit Will Be Shaped By Political Outcomes i...
While Latin America rebounded quickly from the pandemic last year, momentum is expected to quickly fade in 2022. Accommodative macroeconomic policies are turning restrictive, price pressures are rising, and activity is approaching the region's productive capacity. The headline story for Latin America in 2022 will be weak growth and high inflation. However, more fundamentally, two problems that pre-existed the COVID-19 pandemic are reemerging as key constraints on the region's credit outlook: wea...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns December 2021 Up...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. DBRS Morningstar's baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for DBRS Morningstar's ratings. When our baseline scenarios were last published 3 months ago (September 8, 20...
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- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns
This commentary introduces an updated approach to monitoring macroeconomic conditions and their potential impact on DBRS Morningstar ratings. Although the COVID-19 pandemic remains a source of uncertainty, the most affected sectors (e.g., travel, hospitality, etc.) are already plainly evident. For other sectors, the future macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is no longer expected to exceed the parameters of a normal economic downturn. Consequently, with this commentary, we are retiring our mode...
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Portugal REPUBLIC OF
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- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
DBRS Morningstar Changes Trend on Mexico to Stable; Confirms at BBB
DBRS Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the United Mexican States’ (Mexico) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at BBB. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the United Mexican States’ Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-2 (high). The trend on all ratings has been changed to Stable from Negative.
- Michael Heydt
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Latin America After the Pandemic
Public debt ratios across Latin America have markedly increased as a result of the pandemic. The IMF estimates that general government debt for the region as a whole increased by 9 percentage points (pp) of GDP from 2019 to 2020. Despite this, some Latin American governments can now borrow in the market at historically low rates as central banks in advanced economies and in emerging markets deliver highly expansionary monetary policy.
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
- Michael Heydt
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Poor Governance in Mexico is Unlikely To Improve Under AMLO
In this commentary, DBRS Morningstar evaluates recent evidence regarding the quality of Mexico’s governing institutions and assesses how these institutions might evolve under AMLO. In our view, the broad policy direction taken by the AMLO administration is unlikely to improve governance. In some areas, governance may even weaken. Read more in our commentary.
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