In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
The new government has presented its first official medium-term budgetary targets since taking office. While the election of President Nikos Christodoulides in February 2023 marked a shift in Cypriot politics as his candidacy was not backed by either of the two largest political parties DISY and AKEL, the medium-term budgetary targets signal fiscal policy continuity. Similar to the projections of the previous government's Draft Budget 2023 released in October 2022, the Stability Programme 2023-2...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
In this latest edition of the DBRS Morningstar Macroeconomic Update for Europe, we discuss how inflation persistence may prompt the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to raise interest rates further. Key Highlights EURO AREA • As interest rates increase, credit growth has started to slow. Energy prices have fallen but core inflation remains sticky, pointing to further monetary tightening in the coming months. • With the energy crisis fading and the labour market remaining strong, ...
DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Republic of Cyprus’ Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at BBB. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Republic of Cyprus’ Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-2 (high). The trend on all ratings remains Stable.
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
DBRS Morningstar has published a commentary analysing the financial position of households in the euro area and their degree of resilience in what is now a far more challenging environment. Key highlights include: • COVID-19 interrupted the consumer deleveraging trend in the euro area, which nevertheless started to revert in Q3 2020 as income growth rebounded. • Wages and salaries started growing again post-pandemic, but this will only partially offset inflationary pressures. • Whilst househ...
In this latest edition of the DBRS Morningstar Macroeconomic Update for Europe, we discuss how the energy crisis is afflicting the euro area economies and the UK ahead of winter. Key Highlights EURO AREA • DBRS Morningstar expects slow growth in the EA in the near term, as economic activity is affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, especially through weaker confidence and higher inflation. Consumer confidence fell in March to its lowest level since May 2020, DBRS Morningstar expects growth ...
DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Republic of Cyprus’ Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at BBB. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Republic of Cyprus’ Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-2 (high). The trend on all ratings remains Stable.
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • 2022 growth projections have deteriorated in recent months, dri...
In this latest edition of the DBRS Morningstar Macroeconomic Update for Europe, we discuss how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has worsened the economic outlook in Europe. Key highlights: EURO AREA -- DBRS Morningstar expects slow growth in the EA in the near term, as economic activity is affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, especially through weaker confidence and higher inflation. Consumer confidence fell in March to its lowest level since May 2020, likely reflecting concerns over the impa...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary updating our Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • Baseline forecasts have deteriorated in rec...
The introduction of sanctions and counter sanctions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has increased the downside risks to otherwise strong medium term economic prospects for Cyprus. DBRS Morningstar takes the view that the main transmission channels for Cyprus are through tourism revenues and higher energy prices. The tourism exports to Russia, which is a key source market for Cyprus, are set to take a hit in 2022. That said, DBRS Morningstar takes the view that the economic benefits from an i...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. DBRS Morningstar's baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for DBRS Morningstar's ratings. When our baseline scenarios were last published 3 months ago (September 8, 20...
This commentary analyses the performance of the travel and tourism sectors (T&T) in Southern European countries in 2021. In a previous commentary we assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Southern European travel and tourism market in 2020 when there was an absence of vaccines and travel harmonization processes. Following a challenging year in 2021, but with the vaccination rollout and the relaxation of travel bans until the last few days, international tourism in Southern Europe sh...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.