In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
DBRS Morningstar released a commentary titled “Japan: Incoming BoJ Governor Faces A Delicate Balancing Act.” A combination of ultraloose monetary policies and external shocks have finally resulted in above target inflation in Japan. It is unclear if these dynamics will be sustained. However, if inflation persists, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could be compelled to dial back its expansionary monetary policy stance. In such a scenario, incoming Governor Ueda will face a delicate balancing act when he ...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed Japan’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at A (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Japan’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (middle). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
Japan's energy policy is undergoing a shift in response to the sharp increase in global energy prices over past year. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all G7 countries have committed to reduce their reliance on Russian energy by phasing out or banning imports of Russian sourced fuels. At present, Japan imports 90% of its energy requirements, with imports from Russia accounting for 10.2% of its coal imports, 8.7% of LNG, and 3.7% of petroleum gas. Japan was once a top producer and cons...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
On July 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates steady and maintained its policy stance on Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control (YCC). The policy appears appropriate given the demand deficiency and limited inflationary pressures Japan is currently experiencing. Nonetheless, the rising interest rate differential between the BoJ and other global central banks has caused the Japanese yen to weaken significantly to the lowest point in 25 years with the USD/JPY t...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • 2022 growth projections have deteriorated in recent months, dri...
DBRS Morningstar has released a commentary updating our Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for credit ratings. Key highlights include: • Baseline forecasts have deteriorated in rec...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. DBRS Morningstar's baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. We also explore some noteworthy risks to the baseline scenarios, and briefly discuss some potential implications for DBRS Morningstar's ratings. When our baseline scenarios were last published 3 months ago (September 8, 20...
DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed Japan’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at A (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Japan’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (middle). The trend on all ratings is Stable.
This commentary introduces an updated approach to monitoring macroeconomic conditions and their potential impact on DBRS Morningstar ratings. Although the COVID-19 pandemic remains a source of uncertainty, the most affected sectors (e.g., travel, hospitality, etc.) are already plainly evident. For other sectors, the future macroeconomic impact of the pandemic is no longer expected to exceed the parameters of a normal economic downturn. Consequently, with this commentary, we are retiring our mode...
In this DBRS Morningstar commentary, we discuss Japan's challenging growth outlook at the outset of a spectator-less Olympics and amid ongoing concerns about the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Japan's economy has experienced a moderate contraction in comparison to its G-7 peers and has experienced relatively smaller outbreaks, but a slow start to vaccinations may delay Japan's recovery between 3-6 months relative to its peers. Rising COVID-19 infections have prompted the government to ...
This commentary provides the latest update to DBRS Morningstar's Global Macroeconomic Scenarios, which were first published on April 16, 2020. These scenarios have been regularly updated to reflect the most recent developments relating to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its economic consequences. A global recovery is underway, led by advanced economies that have made substantial progress in vaccinating the adult population and have reduced mobility restrictions. However, the globa...
DBRS Morningstar first published a set of macroeconomic scenarios for select economies in April 2020. These scenarios have been regularly updated to reflect the most recent developments relating to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its economic consequences. The commentary below provides an update to our latest assessment of the economic recovery and labor market impact.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.