reports
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2023 Updat...
In this commentary we provide an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. Key highlights include: -- Economic data continues to show resilience amid tighter financial conditions. Forecasts for 2023 continue to improve, while expectations for 2024 are generally worsening as projected slowdowns are pushed further out into the future. -- While a mild advanced economy recession will likely have a limited impact on rated sovereigns, the risk of a deeper downturn in 2024 canno...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
France: Social Unrest By Itself Does Not Stress Sovereign Ratings
Social unrest in France brought on by the lack of popular or political support for pension reform appears unrelenting. Even though increasingly more tenacious public demonstrations pose a challenge in an already fractious political environment, social unrest by itself is not likely to affect France's (AA (high), Stable) ratings. DBRS Morningstar considers pension reform an important part of the government's medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy and supportive of employment growth. The negati...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: April 2023 Upda...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar's Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the deteriorating outlook for 2024. To date, we note that the March 2023 bank failures have had only a modest impact on forecasts. We continue to see considerable downside risks to the baseline. Key Highligh...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Adriana Alvarado
- Julia Specht
- Nichola James
Europe Macroeconomic Update: A Few More Rises in Interest Rates Amid I...
In this latest edition of the DBRS Morningstar Macroeconomic Update for Europe, we discuss how inflation persistence may prompt the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to raise interest rates further. Key Highlights EURO AREA • As interest rates increase, credit growth has started to slow. Energy prices have fallen but core inflation remains sticky, pointing to further monetary tightening in the coming months. • With the energy crisis fading and the labour market remaining strong, ...
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
1092Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
Lithuania LITHUANIA
3344606Z REPUBLIC OF
1000Z LATVIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
Belgium ESTONIA
111136Z REPUBLIC OF
EMKT BELGIUM
NI KINGDOM OF
TOPEM SLOVAK REPUBLIC
TOPL AUSTRIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak NORWAY
1480Z KINGDOM OF
Austria SPAIN
1233Z KINGDOM OF
NORWAY CYPRUS
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 HELLENIC REPUBLIC
CYPRUS LUXEMBOURG
EUROPE GRAND DUCHY OF
1004Z IRELAND
1110Z REPUBLIC OF
1266Z SWEDEN
IRELAND KINGDOM OF
1179Z FINLAND
SWEDEN REPUBLIC OF
1306Z ITALY
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SLOVENIA
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
344758Z MALTA
5753Z REPUBLIC OF
223727Z FRANCE
1533Z REPUBLIC OF
1174Z THE NETHERLANDS
Portugal KINGDOM OF
PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
France: Public Backlash Likely to Challenge Future Reforms
As promised by President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron during last year's re-election campaign, France (AA (high), Stable) has enhanced the financial stability of the pension system by increasing the minimum age and contribution years before a worker can retire. We are of the view that the reform is favourable and an important part of the government's fiscal consolidation strategy, but its medium-term impact on France's economy and its structural fiscal deficit will likely be marginal. ...
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Republic of France at AA (high), Stable Tren...
DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Republic of France’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AA (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Republic of France’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trends on all ratings remain Stable.
- Jason Graffam
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
France Economy: Strongest Crisis Performer Among EA Big Four
The Republic of France's (AA (high), Stable) economy performed the strongest during the global disruptions of the last three years compared to its large-economy Euro area (EA) peers: Germany (AAA, Stable), Italy (BBB (high), Stable) and Spain (A, Stable). The French economy is comparatively more closed and more dependent on government consumption - features that supported domestic demand and helped withstand this particular series of shocks. According to the IMF, France's cumulative economic gro...
- Mehdi Fadli
- Nichola James
Régions Françaises: les Solides Résultats Budgétaires de 2022 Devraien...
Seule la version en langue anglaise de ce commentaire en date du 11 janvier 2023 fait foi. Suite à la publication au dernier trimestre de 2022 par les régions françaises de leurs orientations budgétaires pour 2023, qui incluent des prévisions d'atterrissage budgétaire pour 2022, DBRS Morningstar estime que le bloc régional a été en mesure de maintenir de solides résultats budgétaires et un niveau d’endettement très modéré l’an dernier, sur la base de données consolidées. DBRS Morningstar consid...
- Mehdi Fadli
- Nichola James
French Regions: Strong 2022 Fiscal Results Should Allow Them To Weathe...
Following the release in the last quarter of 2022 by French regions of their budgetary plans for 2023 which include 2022 fiscal result estimates, DBRS Morningstar takes the view that the regions were able to maintain a solid budgetary performance and a very moderate debt level last year, on a consolidated basis. DBRS Morningstar believes this strong 2022 financial position will give French regions the capacity to cope with 2023 financial challenges, especially the impacts of inflation on their b...
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
France Electricity: A Terrible Time To Underproduce
France's untimely underproduction of electricity stems from challenges to the nuclear power sector. Delays to the maintenance of nuclear reactors, due to the pandemic and labour shortages, forced much of the nuclear fleet to shut down precisely when the availability of electricity has been made worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While French households and businesses in recent months have reduced their electricity consumption, authorities do not rule out the possibility of power rationing th...
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: December 2022 U...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and bleak outlook for 2023. Key highlights include: -- Forecasts for 2023 have deteriorated in recent months. Growth will be very weak or negative for most major economies. -- ...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z LATVIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z ESTONIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1110Z KINGDOM OF
1266Z CYPRUS
IRELAND REPUBLIC OF
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
45793Z REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
CHILE
REPUBLIC OF
- Arnaud Journois
- Carlo Capuano
- Dimitra Louka
- Elisabeth Rudman
Euro Area Consumers’ Resilience Tested by Higher Inflation and Rising ...
DBRS Morningstar has published a commentary analysing the financial position of households in the euro area and their degree of resilience in what is now a far more challenging environment. Key highlights include: • COVID-19 interrupted the consumer deleveraging trend in the euro area, which nevertheless started to revert in Q3 2020 as income growth rebounded. • Wages and salaries started growing again post-pandemic, but this will only partially offset inflationary pressures. • Whilst househ...
GERMANY FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
1092Z LITHUANIA
Lithuania REPUBLIC OF
3344606Z LATVIA
1000Z REPUBLIC OF
ESTONIA ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z BELGIUM
EMKT KINGDOM OF
NI SLOVAK REPUBLIC
TOPEM AUSTRIA
TOPL REPUBLIC OF
1023Z SPAIN
Slovak KINGDOM OF
1480Z CYPRUS
Austria REPUBLIC OF
1841Z HELLENIC REPUBLIC
3343903 LUXEMBOURG
CYPRUS GRAND DUCHY OF
EUROPE IRELAND
1004Z REPUBLIC OF
1110Z FINLAND
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND ITALY
1306Z REPUBLIC OF
CN SLOVENIA
2103Z REPUBLIC OF
SLOVENIA MALTA
1091Z REPUBLIC OF
5753Z FRANCE
223727Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z THE NETHERLANDS
1174Z KINGDOM OF
Portugal PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
- Adriana Alvarado
- Nichola James
- Spyridoula Tzima
Europe Macroeconomic Update: An Energy Crisis Afflicting European Econ...
In this latest edition of the DBRS Morningstar Macroeconomic Update for Europe, we discuss how the energy crisis is afflicting the euro area economies and the UK ahead of winter. Key Highlights EURO AREA • DBRS Morningstar expects slow growth in the EA in the near term, as economic activity is affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, especially through weaker confidence and higher inflation. Consumer confidence fell in March to its lowest level since May 2020, DBRS Morningstar expects growth ...
GERMANY FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
1092Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
Lithuania LITHUANIA
3344606Z REPUBLIC OF
1000Z LATVIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
Belgium ESTONIA
111136Z REPUBLIC OF
EMKT BELGIUM
NI KINGDOM OF
TOPEM SLOVAK REPUBLIC
TOPL AUSTRIA
1023Z REPUBLIC OF
Slovak SPAIN
1480Z KINGDOM OF
Austria CYPRUS
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 HELLENIC REPUBLIC
CYPRUS LUXEMBOURG
EUROPE GRAND DUCHY OF
1004Z IRELAND
1110Z REPUBLIC OF
1266Z FINLAND
IRELAND REPUBLIC OF
1306Z ITALY
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SLOVENIA
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z MALTA
5753Z REPUBLIC OF
223727Z FRANCE
1533Z REPUBLIC OF
1174Z THE NETHERLANDS
Portugal KINGDOM OF
PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
DBRS Morningstar Confirms Republic of France at AA (high), Stable Tren...
DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the Republic of France’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at AA (high). At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Republic of France’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency – Issuer Ratings at R-1 (high). The trends on all ratings remain Stable.
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
- Thomas R. Torgerson
Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: September 2022 ...
This commentary provides an update to DBRS Morningstar’s Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios. These baseline scenarios provide our estimate of the current market consensus, and are drawn from a simple median calculation across various external contributor forecasts. In this update, we discuss the ongoing monetary tightening and growing risks of recession. Key Highlights • Baseline forecasts are becoming increasingly bearish, particularly the outlook for 2023. High inflation, energy and labor sho...
3413Z GERMANY
1271Z FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY DENMARK
DENMARK KINGDOM OF
80710Z CANADA
1092Z GOVERNMENT OF
Lithuania UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
3344606Z UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND
1000Z LITHUANIA
ESTONIA REPUBLIC OF
PRCH LATVIA
CHINA REPUBLIC OF
1426Z ESTONIA
Belgium REPUBLIC OF
111136Z CHINA
1023Z PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF
Slovak UNITED MEXICAN STATES
1153Z BELGIUM
COLOMBIA KINGDOM OF
93187Z SLOVAK REPUBLIC
ARGENTINA COLOMBIA
1480Z REPUBLIC OF
Austria ARGENTINA
1233Z REPUBLIC OF
NORWAY AUSTRIA
1841Z REPUBLIC OF
3343903 NORWAY
CYPRUS KINGDOM OF
EUROPE SPAIN
1004Z KINGDOM OF
1110Z CYPRUS
1266Z REPUBLIC OF
IRELAND HELLENIC REPUBLIC
1179Z LUXEMBOURG
SWEDEN GRAND DUCHY OF
1306Z IRELAND
CN REPUBLIC OF
2103Z SWEDEN
172369Z KINGDOM OF
LATAM FINLAND
Japan REPUBLIC OF
1319293D ITALY
SLOVENIA REPUBLIC OF
1091Z URUGUAY
344758Z ORIENTAL REPUBLIC OF
5753Z JAPAN
223727Z SLOVENIA
1323Z REPUBLIC OF
1533Z SWISS CONFEDERATION
1545Z MALTA
ASIA REPUBLIC OF
1174Z FRANCE
Portugal REPUBLIC OF
1504Z BRAZIL
EM FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF
EMKT THE NETHERLANDS
ENEW KINGDOM OF
NI SINGAPORE
TOPEM REPUBLIC OF
TOPL PORTUGAL
REPUBLIC OF
INDIA
REPUBLIC OF
- Jason Graffam
- Nichola James
France's Fiscal Plan: Again Set To Repair Slower Than Peers
In DBRS Morningstar's view, economic growth assumptions in the Republic of France's (AA (high) Stable) 2022-2027 Stability Programme are potentially out of reach, while fiscal targets are unambitious. Under France's medium-term plan - delayed due to elections - the deficit does not fall below 3% of GDP until 2027, and the government debt ratio stabilizes at a high level and does not revert to a downward path. France followed a similar pattern of comparatively slow fiscal consolidation after the ...
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