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Q1 recap: lower volumes, but strong margins, 1-3% adj. EBITA miss, '24e-'26e EBITA down 1-0% post-Q1, sector up 13% YTD (EPS up 5%), now trading at ~22x F12m EV/EBITA, 25% above 10Y avg.
Tougher market did not halt EBITA growth, '24/'25e-'26/'27e EBITA up 0-1%; 7% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 165 (150)
HOLD (Buy), TP SEK 95, 19-18x EV/EBITA ’22e-‘24e ‘22/23e-‘24/25e EBITA +3-2%; 8% CAGR ’21/22-‘24/25e Fiscal Q2 EBITA +9% vs. cons, strong backlog into Q3
Sales +5%, EBITA +9% vs. cons, 11% organic growth Consensus to raise EBITA by 4-2% Strong report, should be up at least in line with revisions
Lagercrantz will report calendar Q3 (fiscal Q2) on Tuesday, 25 October, at 07:45 CET. A conf call will follow at 10:00, dial in: SE , UK 17, code: 332347#
Down to HOLD (Buy), TP SEK 150 (165) Calendar Q3 (fiscal Q2) report on Thursday, 27 October
Up to BUY (Hold), TP SEK 95 (105), ~15% upside ‘22/’23e EBITA +4%, ‘23/’24e-‘24/’25e EBITA down 4-3% Calendar Q3 (fiscal Q2) report on Tuesday, 25 October
Adj. EBITA 8% above cons and margin up 0.3pp… …and weak OCF should be isolated to Q1 We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) following strong share run
Sales and adj. EBITA 6% and 8% above cons Estimates up ~12-13% on est beat and M&A Share up low single digits today
Lagercrantz will report Q1 on Tuesday 19, July, 07:45 (CEST). A conference call will follow at 10:00, dial in: SE , pin: 332347#
Acquisition of Danish PcP Corporation… …represented in ~30 markets worldwide Adds 10% and 9% to ‘22/23e sales and EBITA
Q1’22/23 report due Friday, 15 July ‘22e-‘24e adj. EBITA up 2-0% on M&A and FX Up to BUY (Hold) – TP of SEK 160 (182)
Q1’22/23 report due Tuesday, 19 July ‘22/23e adj. EBITA est. down 2% 19x f12m adj. EBITA, in line with 5Y avg.
Demand and M&A pace to remain at high levels Adj. EBITA estimates up 4% for ‘22/23-’24/25 Up to BUY (Hold), TP SEK 114 (110)
Adj. EBITA 12% above Infront cons Cons. est up 3-5% on strong report Share up low to mid-single digits today
Lagercrantz will report its Q4 results on Tuesday 17 May. A conference call will follow at 10:00, dial in: SE:
Q4’21/22 report due Tuesday 17 May Potentially the last quarter with double-digit organic growth 21x ’23/24e EV/EBITA in M&A scenario
Q4’21/22 report on Tuesday, 17 May Estimates up 1% on FX TP intact at SEK 110, down to HOLD (Buy)
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