>Oncology gains momentum - Sales grew +12% y-o-y in Q1 2024 (vs -20% in Q4 and -9% in Q3). Biopharma sales increased +25% y-o-y in Q1 2024 (compared to -32% in Q4 and -27% in Q3) namely owing to higher revenues from Zepzelca and, to a lesser extent, also higher raw material and ‘early access’ sales. Royalties posted a +14% y-o-y increase (vs -6% in Q4 and+20% in Q3) while the more erratic licence revenues declined -8% which nonetheless implies a material sequential im...
>Higher royalties offset the anticipated oncology slowdown - Total revenues receded significantly -20% y-o-y in Q4 2023 (vs -9% in Q3 and -1% in Q2), yet they were above our estimate helped by higher-than-expected royalties and licences (€ 29m vs € 20m est.). Biopharma sales decreased -32% y-o-y in Q4 2023 (compared to -27% in Q3 and -2% in Q2) reflecting a normalisation after the inflated figures seen in previous quarters that were favoured by one-off ‘early-access...
>Higher royalties offset the anticipated oncology slowdown - Total revenues receded -9% y-o-y in Q3 2023 (vs -1% in Q2 2023). This figure, however, is 24% above our estimate, driven by significantly higher royalties (€ 17m vs. € 10m in Q2 and € 7m estimated for Q3). Biopharma sales decreased 27% y-o-y in Q3 2023 (vs -2% in Q2 2023) reflecting a normalisation after the inflated figures seen in previous quarters that were favoured by one-off ‘early-access’ adjustments i...
En amont des publications T3, nous sommes confiants pour le secteur, qui devrait confirmer le scenario de soft landing, ce qui limite les risques de warning. Toutefois, nous redoutons la réaction du marché alors que les commentaires devraient indiquer une poursuite du ralentissement au T4 menant à des croissances embarquées faibles début 2024. Ceci nous conduit à abaisser nos prévisions de croissance de plusieurs titres et limite le momentum du secteur. Dans ce contexte, nos top picks...
Ahead of the Q3 publications, we are confident on the sector, which should confirm a soft-landing scenario which limits risks of a warning. However, we fear the market’s reaction as comments are likely to indicate a continuing slowdown in Q4, resulting in weak embedded growth in early 2024. This leads us to lower our growth forecasts for several companies and limits sector momentum. In this context, our Top Picks are: Sopra Steria, Indra, Alten, Bechtle, Wavestone and Assystem. - ...
>Oncology revenues normalise and return to the levels seen in Q1 2023/Q4 2022 - Q3 2023 results will be released next 26 October. We expect total revenue to decrease by 27% y-o-y to € 30m explained by lower royalties (-50% y-o-y to € 7m), lower licences (-19% to € 6m) and the normalisation of the oncology revenues (-21% to € 17m vs the € 28m seen in Q2 that were inflated by the one-off ‘early-access’ adjustment in Lurbinectedin. At the EBITDA level, we expect a slight...
>Momentum, albeit still weak, improves sequentially - Total revenues receded just -1% y-o-y in Q2 2023 (vs -60% in Q1 2023, -40% in Q4 2022 and -3% in Q3 2022) and was broadly in line with our numbers and the consensus. Biopharma sales decreased -2% y-o-y in Q2 2023 (compared to -50% in Q1 2023, -44% in Q4 2022 and -18% in Q3 2022) reflecting lower Yondelis revenues (forced price reduction after the patent cliff) and an imposed price reduction in Zepzelca’s early acc...
>Feeble Q1 2022 earnings yet unrelated to Zepzelca’s potential. - Total revenues receded significantly -60% y-o-y in Q1 2023 (vs -40 in Q4 2022, -3% in Q3 2022 and +2% in Q2 2022) and came notably below our numbers and the consensus. Biopharma sales decreased -50% y-o-y in Q1 2023 (compared to -44% in Q4 2022, -18% in Q3 2022 and -2% in Q2 2022) reflecting lower Yondelis revenues (forced price reduction after the patent cliff) and an imposed price reduction in Zepzel...
We are publishing our first slideshow on our Life Sciences & Chemicals macropole. Our expertise integrates many sub-sectors which have been schematically separated into pharma, medtech, biotech, healthcare services and chemicals. The objective here is to review on a quarterly basis the key points of our respective sectors, by publishing both the financial and market metrics as well as the stocks that we recommend. - >Pharma’s defensive role validated thanks to a reassuring...
We are publishing our first slideshow on our Life Sciences & Chemicals macropole. Our expertise integrates many sub-sectors which have been schematically separated into pharma, medtech, biotech, healthcare services and chemicals. The objective here is to review on a quarterly basis the key points of our respective sectors, by publishing both the financial and market metrics as well as the stocks that we recommend. - >Pharma’s defensive role validated thanks to a reassuring...
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