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Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : New 2028 targets, reflecting growing electrificati...

>A reassuring end to the year and guidance for 2025 still penalised by Gamesa - The Q4 publication was reassuring (cf. our first take of yesterday morning) on two fronts: i/ the continuation of a fast pace of order intake (+42% organic with an improvement in the margin in the backlog) and ii/ better-than-anticipated FCF. The guidance for 2025 (revenue growth of 8-10% l-f-l and an adjusted EBITA margin of 3-5%) naturally embeds this acceleration in demand for most...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : Nouveaux objectifs 2028, reflets des besoins crois...

>Une fin d’année rassurante et une guidance 2025 toujours pénalisée par Gamesa - La publication T4 a été rassurante (cf. notre first take hier matin) sur 2 points : i/ la poursuite d’un rythme élevé de prises de commandes (+42% en organique avec une marge en carnet qui s’améliore et ii/ un FCF meilleur qu’attendu.La guidance 2025 (croissance du CA de 8%-10% en comparable et marge d’EBITA ajusté de 3-5%) embarque logiquement cette accélération de la demande sur l...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : T4 2024 en ligne, nouveaux objectifs 2028 ambitieu...

>T4 2023/24 : un book-to-bill à 1.54 et une perte opérationnelle de 83 M€ - Siemens Energy a publié hier soir des résultats T4 globalement proches des attentes. Au niveau consolidé, les commandes s’établissent à 15.0 Md€, en hausse de 42% en comparable (dont -2.8% pour Siemens Gamesa, et +139% pour Grid Technologies - GT). Les commandes progressent de 40.2% pour Gas services (GS). Le chiffre d’affaires atteint 9.7 Md€, 16.6% en comparable (+0.5% pour GS, +38.9% pour G...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : Q4 2024 in line, ambitious new 2028 guidance ahead...

>Q4 2023-24: book-to-bill of 1.54 and operating loss of € 83m - Siemens Energy’s Q4 results, reported yesterday evening, were broadly in line with expectations. At the consolidated level, orders came in at € 15.0bn, up 42% in comparable terms (with -2.8% for Siemens Gamesa, and +139% for Grid Technologies - GT). Orders came in 40.2% higher for Gas services (GS). Revenues amounted to € 9.7bn, up 16.6% in comparable terms (+0.5% for GS, +38.9% for GT, and +19.7% for Sie...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ODDO : US elections: between continuity and disruption, the benefits/r...

Accounting for an average of 19% of revenues for European capital goods groups (over 40% in some cases), the US is clearly a central factor in growth strategies, both organically and inorganically. Based on our analysis of the programmes of the two candidates running for the White House and the positioning of the various groups, we have established two scenarios through which to play the sector depending on the winner in November's election. In this still uncertain US election co...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ODDO : Election US : entre continuité et rupture, les bénéfices/risque...

Représentant 19% en moyenne du CA des groupes de biens d’équipement européens (plus de 40% pour certains), les Etats-Unis sont inévitablement au cœur des stratégies de croissance, tant organique qu’externe. Après analyse des programmes des deux candidats à la Maison Blanche, croisée avec celle du positionnement des groupes, nous avons établi 2 scénarios permettant de se positionner en fonction du candidat qui sera élu en novembre. Dans ce contexte électoral américain encore incer...

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Charlotte Vaisse

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/08/2024

The long financial duration that Cellnex enjoys implies high sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates. After a long challenging two-year period, we now see a more favourable economic environment ahead. Factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and inflation nearing Cellnex’s sweet spot, coupled with a strong organic performance and newly implemented strategic measures—particularly deleveraging and further efficiencies on both Opex and Capex—create a positive backdrop....

Ahmed Ben Salem ... (+2)
  • Ahmed Ben Salem
  • Charlotte Vaisse

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 08/10/2024

The long financial duration that Cellnex enjoys implies high sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates. After a long challenging two-year period, we now see a more favourable economic environment ahead. Factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and inflation nearing Cellnex’s sweet spot, coupled with a strong organic performance and newly implemented strategic measures—particularly deleveraging and further efficiencies on both Opex and Capex—create a positive backdrop....

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : Q4 expected to be solid, medium-term targets set t...

>Q4 set to be largely unsurprising - Order-wise, we see a book-to-bill of >1 for all divisions and 1.11x at the group level, with all segments showing good momentum and including a major offshore order for close to € 3bn. Revenues are set to have grown by 15% in organic terms, thanks largely to Grid Technologies (GT), with growth set to reach 38%, by our estimates. Profit before special items is forecast at -€ 26m, including a loss of -€ 454m for Gamesa and ...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : Un T4 attendu solide, les objectifs de MT seront r...

>Le T4 ne devrait pas réserver de grande surprise - Au niveau des commandes, nous anticipons un book-to-bill > 1 pour toutes les divisions et de 1.11x au niveau groupe, l’ensemble des segments montrant une bonne dynamique et ce trimestre intégrant une grosse commande en offshore de près de 3 Md€. Le chiffre d’affaires devrait avoir progressé de 15% en organique, grâce, en large partie, à Grid Technologies (GT) dont la croissance devrait atteindre 38% selon nous. ...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : A fairly reassuring Q3 despite new provisions in o...

>Q3 2023-24: a quarter close to expectations, a pleasant surprise on FCF - Siemens Energy yesterday morning reported its Q3 results, with FCF better than expected. At the consolidated level, orders came in at € 10.4bn, down 30% in comparable terms (with -91% for Siemens Gamesa, +142% for Gas Services, -15% for Grid Technologies and -13% for Transformation of Industry). Revenues came to € 8.8bn, +18.5% on a comparable basis (1.2% for GS, +30.5% for GT, +25% for Gamesa)...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

Siemens Energy AG : Un T3 plutôt rassurant malgré de nouvelles provisi...

>T3 2023/24 : un trimestre proche des attentes, une bonne surprise sur le FCF - Siemens Energy a publié hier matin ses résultats T3, avec un FCF meilleurs que prévu. Au niveau consolidé, les commandes s’établissent à 10.4 Md€, en baisse de 30% en comparable (dont -91% pour Siemens Gamesa, +142% pour Gas Services, -15% pour Grid Technologies et -13% pour Transformation of Industry). Le chiffre d’affaires atteint 8.8 Md€, +18.5% en comparable (1.2% pour GS, +30.5% pour ...

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