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Jean Danjou ... (+3)
  • Jean Danjou
  • Oliver Metzger
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 02/05/2024

Nous sortons GALP de notre liste ODDO BHF European Large Caps. La valeur a réalisé une performance de +31,3% depuis son entrée le 20 mars dernier. Notre analyste adopte ce jour une opinion Neutre (vs Surperformance) sur la valeur qui a atteint notre objectif de cours. - ...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Aston Martin Lagonda : Q1 offers little reassurance

>Q1 even weaker than expected; guidance confirmed but challenging - Aston Martin reported yesterday morning Q1 results below expectations. Although the group had warned that Q1 would be weak, results still missed already low forecasts, with sales down 10% year-on-year to £ 268m (css £ 290m, ODDO BHF £ 313m), EBITDA down 34% to £ 20m (css £ 30m, ODDO BHF £ 34m) and FCF negative at -£ 190m (css/ODDO BHF -£ 133m). The group was impacted by the refresh of several of its ...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Aston Martin Lagonda : Un T1 2024 qui offre peu d’assurance

>Un T1 encore plus faible qu’attendu ; guidance confirmée mais challenging - Aston Martin a publié hier matin des résultats T1 inférieurs aux attentes. Si le groupe avait déjà prévenu que le T1 serait faible, celui-ci déçoit tout de même les attentes déjà basses, avec un CA en baisse de 10% y-o-y à 268 M£ (css 290 M£, ODDO BHF 313 M£), un EBITDA en baisse de 34% à 20 M£ (css 30 M£, ODDO BHF 34 M£), et un FCF négatif à -190 M£ (css/ODDO BHF -133 M£). Le groupe est not...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Aston Martin Lagonda : Change of risk profile, rating downgraded to Ne...

>EBITDA there, but cash still absent - AML yesterday morning reported a mixed set of Q4 results, with, on the one hand, solid and better-than-expected EBITDA (£ 175m, +13% y-o-y vs css/ODDO BHF at £ 164m), but, on the other, still-negative FCF (-£ 63m), short of expectations (css at +£ 26m and ODDO BHF +£ 48m) and of management’s guidance which was for positive FCF in the quarter. Downward revision to our 2024 EBITDA forecast, FCF breakeven pushed out - §...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Aston Martin Lagonda : Changement du profil de risque, nous passons à ...

>EBITDA au rendez-vous, mais cash toujours absent - AML a publié hier matin des résultats T4 mitigés, avec d’un côté un EBITDA solide et supérieur aux attentes (175 M£, +13% y-o-y vs css/ODDO BHF à 164 M£), mais de l’autre un FCF toujours négatif (-63 M£), inférieur aux attentes (css à +26 M£ et ODDO BHF +48 M£) et à la guidance du management qui visait un FCF positif sur le trimestre. Révision à la baisse de notre EBITDA 2024e, décalage du breakeven de ...

Sinan Doganli
  • Sinan Doganli

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/01/2024 Date Performance dep...

A date, il nous semble un peu tôt pour pleinement repondérer les Midcaps en raison du timing de la baisse des taux que nos économistes/stratégistes situent à mi-2024, mais : i/ les valorisations (PE 24e : 12,5x - VE/EBITDA 24e : 6,3x) offrent, ponctuellement au moins, des opportunités (décote proche de 30% par rapport aux Large caps), ii/ la croissance attendue est de ~4% (CA 24e) et 8% sur l’EBITDA 24e, iii/ l’approche de la détente des taux amorce un changement dans la perception gé...

Sinan Doganli
  • Sinan Doganli

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 01/30/2024 Date Performance sin...

To date, we believe it is a bit early to fully reweight midcaps due to the timing of the interest rate cut which our economists/strategists are expecting in mid-2024, but: i/ valuations (P/E 2024e: 12.5x - 2024e EV/EBITDA: 6.3x) offer, at least occasionally, a number of opportunities (discount close to 30% compared to large caps), ii/ expected growth is at ~4% (2024e sales) and 8% in 2024e EBITDA and iii/ the approach of easing interest rates initiates a change in the general risk per...

Sinan Doganli
  • Sinan Doganli

Software AG : Q4 results below our expectations on the bottom line

>Digital Business performed better than expected while A&N fell below expectations - This morning, Software AG released its Q4 2023 and full year results. Software AG reported € 312.6m in group revenue for Q4 (-2.0% y-o-y), above our expectations of € 299.6m. The major driver of revenue was the digital business which increased by +14% y-o-y to € 203.9m, +4.9% above our expectations of € 194.4m. But A&N saw a decline of -29% y-o-y to € 69.1m, in line with our expectat...

Sinan Doganli
  • Sinan Doganli

Software AG : Mosel Bidco SE requests merger squeeze-out of minority s...

>Software AG to be merged into Mosel Bidco SE - In a press release on Friday, Software AG announced that its management board has received a formal request from the Silverlake controlled entity Mosel Bidco SE for a merger squeeze-out. According to Section 62 para. 1 and para. 5 sentence 1 of the German Transformation Act (Umwandlungsgesetz – UmwG) if an acquiring corporation owns at least 90% of the share capital, minority shareholders can be squeezed out for an appro...

TMT Team
  • TMT Team

End of coverage

From 2nd January 2024, we will no longer include in our research universe:AltenAtosCapgeminiESI GroupIndra SistemasLectraMaterialiseSageSAPSoftware AGSopra Steria GroupSword GroupTemenos

Sinan Doganli
  • Sinan Doganli

Software AG : Silverlake to offer to buy remaining SOW shares and Soft...

>Webmethods and Stremsets to be sold for € 2.13bn to IBM - Silverlake has offered to buy all remaining outstanding shares at € 32 per share with the goal of delisting the company. On top of that, Software AG agreed to sell its Webmethods and Streamsets business to IBM for € 2.13bn. Webmethods is an integration and application programming interface (API) management platform and Streamsets a cloud-native data operations and ingestion platform. Together the products...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Aston Martin Lagonda : Some initial delays new DB12 ramp-up which does...

>Q3 2023 results in line overall apart from deliveries - AML's Q3 2023 results reported yesterday morning were broadly in line with expectations, apart from disappointing deliveries due to delays in ramping up production of the new DB12. These delays have prompted the group to lower its volumes guidance for the year (from 7k to 6.7k units), although it points out that the difficulties encountered (integration of new software systems) have now been resolved. At the sa...

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Aston Martin Lagonda : Un peu de retard sur la nouvelle DB12, sans rem...

>T3 globalement conforme hormis les livraisons - Les résultats d’AML publiés hier matin sont ressortis globalement conformes aux attentes sauf sur les livraisons qui déçoivent du fait de retards dans la montée en cadence de la nouvelle DB12. Ces retards amènent le groupe à abaisser sa guidance de volumes pour l’années (de 7k à 6,7k unités) même s’il précise que les difficultés rencontrées (intégration de nouveaux systèmes logiciels) sont désormais résolues. Les autre...

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