O&M filling the 2025 gaps

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Progressing well

Q4 EBITDA was solid, 12% above our forecast and consensus, and 94% of our 2025e EBITDA of EUR296m is supported by firm backlog. Newbuilds are progressing well, and given the backlog coverage, we find Cadeler well positioned to pay dividends in 2027, when all newbuilds are due to be delivered. We calculate a c30% FCF yield to equity after debt amortisation in 2027 (assuming flat NWC), and reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Solid end to '24, but '25 guidance below

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Execution today, reward tomorrow

In a market with focus on offshore wind headlines, we believe company-specific factors, such as solid execution and backlog build, will eventually benefit shareholders. We maintain our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Energy Morning - 18 March 2025

Filling up 2025 gap with US contract

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

New VRA looks solid

Energy Morning - 4 February 2025

Energy Morning - 30 January 2025

Renewable Weekly – 27 January 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Energy Morning - 27 January 2025

Energy Morning - 21 January 2025

Renewable Weekly – 28 Nov 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~4% throughout the reporting season (15 October to today).

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Progressing as planned

With the first newbuild delivered and more to come, Cadeler should see solid earnings growth. The Q3 results and management comments support its progress as planned, noting cycle duration and strong near-term O&M demand further bolstering vessel utilisation. In a scenario with continued flawless execution, we believe investors will extend their horizon, focusing on 2027e EBITDA, which should help boost the stock price. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK90 (80).

Ticking the boxes

Guidance upgrade, backlog up ~25%

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Keep building visibility

Our Q3e EBITDA of EUR47m is just below consensus of EUR49m. Cadeler continues to build backlog, with visibility extending towards the end of the decade, as recent contracts are booked for 2027–2029 execution; 60% of our 2025–2027e EBITDA is covered by firm contracts. In the near term, we believe the short-cycle O&M market offers opportunities to boost utilisation and earnings in between larger installation contracts, likely at solid economics. We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target price.

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Energy Morning - 6 November 2024