Hornsea 4 cancellation adds to uncertainty

Ørsted today announced it is cancelling development of the 2.4GW Hornsea 4 project off the UK due to increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and greater construction and operational risk (FID was expected later in 2025). The cancellation adds to uncertainty for the offshore wind services industry and overall project profitability within offshore wind. No installation contracts for Hornsea 4 had been disclosed yet, but with Cadeler responsible for foundations and half the turbines on...

Takeaways from WindEurope

At the WindEurope event in Copenhagen, we met with companies representing approximately 75% of the global offshore wind installation fleet, gaining insights that support a constructive outlook for the sector. Addressing recent investor concerns related to market growth, the industry has already reflected and anticipated recent downward adjustments in third-party forecasts. With respect to a slowdown ahead in the US market, a second investor concern lately, near-term vessel demand could surprise ...

DEME acquires Havfram

O&M filling the 2025 gaps

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Progressing well

Q4 EBITDA was solid, 12% above our forecast and consensus, and 94% of our 2025e EBITDA of EUR296m is supported by firm backlog. Newbuilds are progressing well, and given the backlog coverage, we find Cadeler well positioned to pay dividends in 2027, when all newbuilds are due to be delivered. We calculate a c30% FCF yield to equity after debt amortisation in 2027 (assuming flat NWC), and reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Solid end to '24, but '25 guidance below

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Execution today, reward tomorrow

In a market with focus on offshore wind headlines, we believe company-specific factors, such as solid execution and backlog build, will eventually benefit shareholders. We maintain our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Energy Morning - 18 March 2025

Filling up 2025 gap with US contract

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

New VRA looks solid

Energy Morning - 4 February 2025

Energy Morning - 30 January 2025

Renewable Weekly – 27 January 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Energy Morning - 27 January 2025

Energy Morning - 21 January 2025

Renewable Weekly – 28 Nov 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~4% throughout the reporting season (15 October to today).

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Progressing as planned

With the first newbuild delivered and more to come, Cadeler should see solid earnings growth. The Q3 results and management comments support its progress as planned, noting cycle duration and strong near-term O&M demand further bolstering vessel utilisation. In a scenario with continued flawless execution, we believe investors will extend their horizon, focusing on 2027e EBITDA, which should help boost the stock price. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK90 (80).

Ticking the boxes

Guidance upgrade, backlog up ~25%