At the WindEurope event in Copenhagen, we met with companies representing approximately 75% of the global offshore wind installation fleet, gaining insights that support a constructive outlook for the sector. Addressing recent investor concerns related to market growth, the industry has already reflected and anticipated recent downward adjustments in third-party forecasts. With respect to a slowdown ahead in the US market, a second investor concern lately, near-term vessel demand could surprise ...
Q4 EBITDA was solid, 12% above our forecast and consensus, and 94% of our 2025e EBITDA of EUR296m is supported by firm backlog. Newbuilds are progressing well, and given the backlog coverage, we find Cadeler well positioned to pay dividends in 2027, when all newbuilds are due to be delivered. We calculate a c30% FCF yield to equity after debt amortisation in 2027 (assuming flat NWC), and reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.
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