Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...
Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...
>Updating estimates on strategic realignment - We are updating our estimates (-10% in average EBITDA 2024-25e) and valuation (-26%) of Soltec following the reclassification of 2023 results and its strategic realignment (stricter focus on the tracker segment with a reduction in the construction service activity and more selective approach in Energy projects). The company will update its financial guidance for 2024 when releasing Q1 2024 results and could update its lon...
>Revenue recognition criteria defer revenues to 2024 - Soltec has restated its financial accounts for 2023 following a change of criteria by the auditor regarding IFRS15 (Revenue from Contracts with Customers) on the recognition of revenues and expenses booked in 2023 associated with bill and hold agreements on 36 contracts for the supply of solar trackers. The modification implies a reduction in FY 2023 revenues of € 192m (33% of initially reported revenues) and € 14...
>Operating results in line, higher financial costs weigh on net profit - Soltec’s operating results came in slightly above our estimates at the operating level (higher EBITDA margin at the Trackers division: 8.5% in 2023 and up to 16.4% in Q4 2023) on strong industrial activity levels (2.6 GW supplied in Q4 vs 1.7 GW in 9M 2023: 4.3 GW in 2023, +23% vs our 3.5 GW estimate) but significantly below our estimates at the net level on higher financial costs (average cost o...
>Frenetic activity in Q4 to deliver on guidance levels - Soltec will release FY 2023 results on 28 February. Q4 2023 results should materially expand to allow the group to reach its recently reiterated financial guidance (EBITDA € 45m to € 60m) considering the weak H1 2023 results (EBITDA of € -10.2m) and limited progress in 9M 2023 (EBITDA of € 0.6m, implying € 10.8m in Q3 2023). Industrial activity (95% of the group’s revenues) strongly accelerated in Q4 as reflecte...
>Turning point confirmed - Soltec’s Q3 2023 earnings came significantly above our estimates (>50% EBITDA, € 3.8m higher) with an EBITDA margin of 9% compared to our 5% estimate. Margins were supported by the Industrial segment performance (8.6% EBITDA margin in Q3 2023 vs -4.3% in H1 2023) due to volume growth (0.7GW supplied in Q3 2023 and 1.7GW in 9M 2023) and product mix improvements. Sales were however below our estimates (€ 120m vs € 140m, -15%).We expect a ...
>Uninspiring results as anticipated on weak industrial performance - Soltec results were broadly in line with estimates (EBITDA H1 2023 of -€ 10m) with weak activity levels at the Industrial segment (-25% y-o-y) due to the late release of the IRA guidelines in the US and the postponement of administrative milestones in the permitting segment in Spain (regional and national elections). The industrial segment (95% of consolidated revenues) recorded 1 GW of tracker suppl...
>Solar tracker demand to materialise in H2 2023 - Soltec’s Q1 2023 results were weak, as expected, with Soltec’s Industrial figures (-46% in revenues y-o-y and negative adjusted EBITDA margin of -4.5%) dragging the group’s results on seasonality factors as results are expected to be significantly back-end loaded in 2023 (IRA guidelines release in the US and RTB status of approved capacity in Spain). Adjusted EBITDA margins are affected by low activity levels and linea...
We initiate coverage on Soltec with an Outperform recommendation and a target price of € 7.35 (the average of peer multiples and sum-of-the-parts: 16.1x implied EV/EBITDA 2023e, 12.6x 2024e). We are impressed by its sound positioning in the solar PV industry, particularly in the solar tracker segment (15.6 GW installed, #4 globally, 24 GW pipeline), its track record in Project development (14.4 GW pipeline), and the outstanding growth profile of the Assets segment. We expect Sol...
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