No tears in these sheets: Q1 EBITDA +8%

Q1 EBITDA +8%

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Weaker numbers, no dividends, upside capped

Q4 below, Q1 likely better but below cons

December: Pulp shipments +1% y-o-y

Nordic Paper Holding (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Nordic Paper Holding. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Little momentum, more value

Q4 preview

November: Pulp shipments -4% y-o-y

CO2 allowances - easy come, easy go

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Nordic Paper Holding (Hold, TP: SEK50.00) - Bid overshadows all

Group Q3 EBITDA of SEK106m was close to our forecast, with stronger earnings for Greaseproof Paper but weaker for Kraft Paper. We have lowered our group EBITDA25-26e marginally, and expect the stock to continue to trade around SVP’s bid level of SEK50/share, well below our fair value of SEK70/share. We maintain our HOLD and SEK50 target price.

Farewell, my lovely

Q3 in line, Q4 likely weaker than expected

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Nordic Paper Holding (Hold, TP: SEK50.00) - Unfortunate bid situation

Nordic Paper’s main owner (Shanying) has sold its 48.2% stake in the company to a new investor (Strategic Value Partners, SVP) in an irrevocable deal for SEK50/share. Also, SVP has made a public offer for all shares outstanding at SEK50/share, far below our fair value of cSEK70. As SVP says significant investment is required and the generous dividend policy will be reviewed, we expect the stock to trade around the bid level for the foreseeable future. We have cut our target price to SEK50 (67) a...