March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK65.00) - Solid Q1 and appealing outl...

Due to strong shipments and solid pricing of greaseproof paper, Q1 earnings were clearly above our forecasts. Looking ahead, we believe the company is well placed to mitigate higher wood costs with higher prices. No new information about a potential sale of the company was provided; however, given attractive assets and exposure, we still believe it could be sold at a premium and we consider the stock attractively valued even if a sale does not happen. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our tar...

Pulling another rabit out of the hat

Q1: EBITDA beat of 20%: Greaseproof surprises. Prices up 4% in Q2 vs. Q1. Mid-cycle fair price ~SEK 60-65/sh (~20% upside).

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - Improving earnings prospect...

Although sales volumes were down 8% YOY, Q4 EBITDA was slightly above our forecast thanks to favourable cost and price trends for the greaseproof paper business. Based on low inventories and improved order intake, management guided for improved volumes and better prices for H1 2024, which we believe should more than offset higher variable costs. Following the Q4 report, we have raised our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 8–10%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK60 (55).

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Increasingly attractive

After analysing and fully incorporating announced and possible strategic investments at the Bäckhammar mill of more than SEK1.3bn in our model, we conclude that the investment case has become increasingly attractive. For the coming years, we believe that the dividend payout ratio of 50–70% can be maintained, and from 2026e we have modelled an annual EBITDA uplift of SEK150m. This suggests a low P/E ratio of 5.5x and a dividend yield of more than 10%. We have raised our target price to SEK55 (50)...

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Raised EPS and DPS forecast...

Continued selling price declines in Q3 were mitigated by good volumes and lower input costs, and underlying Q3 earnings were well above our estimate. For Q4, the company expects somewhat lower prices but still-stable markets, which we find reassuring. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK50 (45) on our raised 2024–2025 earnings and dividends forecasts.

Northern Lights

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK42.00) - Discipline and earnings res...

Despite tougher markets overall, Nordic Paper continued to generate healthy earnings and strong cash flow in Q2. We believe the encouraging report was explained by the group’s favourable exposure to smaller but profitable end-segments offering pricing power. Our forecasts are largely unchanged, and beyond the seasonally weaker Q3, we see attractive earnings and valuation multiples. We reiterate our BUY and SEK42 target price.

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK42.00) - Healthy earnings outlook re...

Although we believe earnings will weaken in the coming quarters on softer prices in combination with higher wood fibre prices costs, in our view the company should be able to maintain healthy 2024–2025e earnings that translate into very low valuation multiples. As a result of weaker prices over costs, we have cut our EBITDA for 2023e by 8% and 2024e by 5%. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK42 (50), reflecting our negative revisions and the cash distribution to shareholders...

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Improved outlook and reduce...

Despite challenging markets, Nordic Paper reported record-high EBITDA of SEK282m in Q1, thanks to its strong pricing power. Market conditions are still challenging meaning it cannot produce at full speed and for April it said its average realised prices were down 7–8%. Still, given the solid earnings base in Q1, earnings should remain healthy in Q2. We have raised our earnings scenario and our target price to SEK50 (48). We reiterate our BUY.

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Good start to 2023

Despite broad negative industry news flow for the forestry sector, we continue to believe the pricing power in Nordic Paper’s two market niches, kraft paper and greaseproof paper, remains favourable, and we have made small but positive revisions to our 2023e. However, we have cut our target price to SEK48 (54), reflecting much weaker investor sentiment which has hurt the valuations of other relevant forestry names.

Northern Lights

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK54.00) - Q4 proves healthy pricing p...

Due to stronger prices for kraft paper and greaseproof paper, Q4 EBITDA of SEK260m significantly beat our forecast. Management indicated c5% lower prices entering 2023; however, with strong Q4 earnings, we find this quite optimistic and have raised our 2023e EBITDA by close to 10%. Based on this and a higher than forecast proposed DPS of SEK4.65, we have increased our target price to SEK54 (52). We reiterate our BUY.

Northern Lights

Sector Fast Comment - October pulp data: shipments +2% y-o-y

Global shipments: +2% y-o-y, China +8% Pulp prices have started to fall but show resilience '23 supply manageable, but a recession could hit demand

Sector Fast Comment - September pulp data: shipments +5% y-o-y

Global shipments: +5% y-o-y, China +1% Pulp prices have started to fall amid a weaker cycle ’23 supply manageable, but a recession could hit demand

Northern Lights

Nordic Paper - ATH performance in maintenance quarter

EBITDA 12% below cons Q4e EBITDA SEK 215m Solid value support: mid-cycle valuation ~SEK 50/sh

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - 10%+ dividend yield for 202...

The seasonally weaker Q3 report was largely in line with our forecasts, while operating cashflow of cSEK260m was much above our expectation. While we expect higher/volatile electricity and wood prices to have a significant impact on Nordic Paper’s operating costs, we also expect price rises to neutralise much of this. As well as having a robust balance sheet, Nordic Paper is trading at an attractive 2023–2024e P/E of 6x, and our raised 2022e DPS of SEK3.5 translates into a yield of almost 12%. W...

Nordic Paper - Q3 slightly below

Clean EBITDA slightly below consensus Kraft Paper above, Greaseproof below Q4 will be significantly stronger than Q3