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ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Herman Caspersen
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC Credit Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Credit Research
  • Bendik Fougner Engebretsen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Herman Caspersen
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Norway: Rebound to continue

Positive or neutral estimate revisions for most companies. Best risk/reward over Q2 in Crayon, Link, NOD. Top picks: Atea, Crayon, Link, Pexip.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Compounder at 8-9% FCF yield

We lift '24e-'26e EBITA by 5-8%. Compounder growing ~10% organically + accretive M&A. BUY: Quality company at 8-9% '24e-'26e FCF yields.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

M&A is back

Another solid report, '25e-'26e adj. EBITDA up 2%. Stable business with ~10% org. growth + accretive M&A. BUY: Quality company at 8-10% '24e-'26e FCF yields.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Quality still at a discount

We lift '24-'25e EBITA by 5% and '26e by 12%. Stable, low-risk business with 5-10% org. growth. BUY: Quality company at 8-9% '24e-'25e FCF yield. TP up to NOK 30 (26).

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - Close to a bottom

Likely two more tough quarters ahead Cost cuts, easy comps and strong USD point to better ‘23e BUY: 10.3x 2022e cash P/E and 9.3% FCF yield

Rikard Magnus Braaten
  • Rikard Magnus Braaten

Link Mobility - A good quarter for its creditors

Solid adj. EBITDA vs. expectations Reiterates FY ’22 guidance from Q2 Not enough for bonds to rally

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - 7% adj. EBITDA beat on lower costs

Adj. EBITDA +7% vs. cons, 4% org. GP growth y-o-y Beat due to lower cost base (minor effect of cost cuts yet) Cons likely to lift ’22-23e adj. EBITDA by 1-3%

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - Waiting for operational improvements

We are 3% below cons. on Q3 adj. EBITDA Cost cuts and a strong USD point to better 2023e BUY: Depressed valuation, but company needs to deliver

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - Cost savings slightly higher than expected

Shifting focus back from CPaaS to SMS Cost cut program: cash savings of NOK ~90m Cons likely to increase 2023e adj. EBITDA by 2-3%

Rikard Magnus Braaten
  • Rikard Magnus Braaten

Link Mobility - Weak report with neg. revisions on outlook

Soft Q2 performance vs. market expectations Cutting opex and capex and revises outlook Spreads should widen on higher uncertainty

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - Weak report, adj. EBITDA 12% below

Weak: Adj. EBITDA 12% below, -1% org. GP growth 2022 guidance lowered and initiates cost cuts ‘22e adj. EBITDA -7-9%, stock likely down +10%

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - Uncertainty creates opportunity

Second beat in a row: 9% organic gross profit growth Key triggers: strong growth in H2’22e + deleveraging Great value: 8.3x ‘23e EBITA and 11% ‘23e FCF yield

Rikard Magnus Braaten
  • Rikard Magnus Braaten

Link Mobility - Bond prices to remain stable after Q1 report

Solid vs. our expectations and slightly ahead of cons. Pf. adj. figures show status quo since last quarter We do not expect material changes to LINKs bond price

Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+2)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Link Mobility - 4% adj. EBITDA beat on higher volumes

#2 beat in a row. Adj. EBITDA 4% above expectations 9% organic GP growth, 111% net retention Highly attractive valuation: 8-10% ’22-‘23e FCF yield

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