Deliveroo: controlled reinvestments in 2025, untouched business model

Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as a year of reinvestment set to fuel longer-term growth and implying a smaller margin expansion than usual. Whether these investments are purely proactive or in response to the ongoing acquisition of JET by Prosus, we expect a higher pace of growth going forward and have

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!

Deliveroo: when speculative appeal knocks at your door

With Prosus acquiring Just Eat Takeaway (as detailed in our other note on Just Eat Takeaway), M&A activity in the European food delivery sector is set to pick up. While timing considerations of a potential Delivery Hero delisting by Prosus remain uncertain, we prefer to bet on a closer acquisit

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #58

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the drivers behdind the busy M&A activity in Beauty. Happy reading!

UK Retail: relief on relatively unharmful 2025 budget

The tax increases outlined in the UK's 2025 budget have proved to be skewed towards corporates and wealthy households with the prospect of manageable extra-staff costs for Tesco (Buy) and Deliveroo (Neutral) and better purchasing power prospects, fuelling a continued recovery in grocery volume &amp

Deliveroo: improving profile, but still limited upside

Post-Q2 publication, we have lifted our PT from 122p to 140p to reflect better EBITDA margin development and the GBP150m share buyback. In spite of improving growth / profitability / FCF profile, it is still too early to value Deliveroo as a traditional restaurant as FY 2025-26 sales growth and EBI

Deliveroo: EBITDA overdelivers and GBP150m buyback

Deliveroo disappointed on sales in Q2 due to lower take rate in the UK & Ireland, reflecting higher investments to reboost demand and to retake market share recently lost to Just Eat. But the group's ability to overdeliver on EBITDA might prompt some consensus upgrades on top of a new GBP150m s

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti

Food Delivery: diverging growth/FCF profiles

Post TKWY and ROO's Q1 figures and ahead of DHER's publication, we note an improving growth trend in Q1. This growth will nevertheless have to rebalance towards orders as out-of-home food is also set to face disinflation this year. The ability to recreate HSD% growth will be the name of the 2024-25

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #23

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the recovery in global passenger air traffic. Happy reading!

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b

Deliveroo: improving but back-end loaded growth/FCF profile

Post-FY publication, we have lifted our PT from 115p to 120p and remain at Neutral despite an improving growth/profitability/FCF profile. Short-term momentum remains hampered by: 1/ no real consensus upgrades in the pipeline, 2/ no additional shareholder return, 3/ back-end loaded FY 2024 guidance,

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in

Food Delivery: "new normal valuation" debate remains wide open

With the sales warning/EBITDA guidance upgrade divergence persisting in Q3, the "new normal valuation" debate remains wide open in the food delivery sector. We see a two-scenario path when comparing the sector with adjacent food retail and restaurants, pointing to a 0.5-3x EV/Sales range. While we

Key takeaways from Instacart's upcoming IPO

With Instacart's IPO approaching, we believe that the targeted valuation of 2.8-3x EV/Sales 2023e will first require that concerns surrounding growth prospects, sustainability in the value chain and social regulations are addressed. More interestingly, the targeted valuation fits perfectly with the

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Spec. Retail, results

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Deliveroo

Limited visibility on orders and back-end loaded guidance

Post-FY results publication, we understand that FY 2023 GTV growth is set to remain low and back-end loaded while continuously improving EBITDA should enable FCF break-even in H2 2023 before cash generation as of 2024. Following a YTD outperformance vs. peers with Deliveroo stock up 4% YTD (mostly

FY 23 guidance in line, GBP50m share buyback

Deliveroo has issued broadly in-line and back-end loaded FY 2023 guidance with GTV c.FX growth in the low to mid-single digits and EBITDA between GBP20m and GBP50m, still implying a sequential margin improvement from H2 2022 (excl. recently closed Australia and the Netherlands). The absence of a to

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Inditex, Deliveroo