reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #46
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
UK Retail: relief on relatively unharmful 2025 budget
The tax increases outlined in the UK's 2025 budget have proved to be skewed towards corporates and wealthy households with the prospect of manageable extra-staff costs for Tesco (Buy) and Deliveroo (Neutral) and better purchasing power prospects, fuelling a continued recovery in grocery volume &
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: P10 UK market share on the same trend as recent months
Following the P10 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its exposure to a still-healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix no longer negative, no price war in sight until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution currently unlocking strong market share momentum
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: "beat-and-raise" cycle still in motion post-H1
Post-another strong H1 publication and guidance upgrade, we continue to view Tesco as a "beat-and-raise" story with continued ability to lift guidance and positively surprise, and have lifted our FY 2024-26 FCF by c.6% and our PT to 404p. Tesco's exposure to the still healthy UK market combined wit
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: H1 EBIT beat and a welcome FY EBIT guidance upgrade
Post Tesco's strong set of H1 figures (particularly EBIT while sales were just in line), we view the FY retail EBIT guidance upgrade to "around GBP2.9bn" as sufficient enough to please investors and prompt a few estimates upgrades among sell-side analysts. Tesco's exposure to the healthy UK market
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #39
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we discuss the Fed's upcoming meeting and rate cut. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: defensive appeal and earnings momentum overshadow stretched val...
Ahead of the H1 release on 3rd October, we have lifted our FY FCF by c.3% and our PT from 349p to 386p on the back of better market dynamics and Tesco's market share development. While acknowledging the stretched valuation, we continue to favour Tesco (Buy) alongside Ahold Delhaize (Buy) as a conti
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: P08 momentum gains ground in a healthier UK market
Following the P08 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its exposure to a still-healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix back to growth, accelerating and looking better than the rest of Europe, no price war until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution curre
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: improving profile, but still limited upside
Post-Q2 publication, we have lifted our PT from 122p to 140p to reflect better EBITDA margin development and the GBP150m share buyback. In spite of improving growth / profitability / FCF profile, it is still too early to value Deliveroo as a traditional restaurant as FY 2025-26 sales growth and EBI
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: EBITDA overdelivers and GBP150m buyback
Deliveroo disappointed on sales in Q2 due to lower take rate in the UK & Ireland, reflecting higher investments to reboost demand and to retake market share recently lost to Just Eat. But the group's ability to overdeliver on EBITDA might prompt some consensus upgrades on top of a new GBP150m s
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Still accelerating in an increasingly healthy market
Post P06 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its exposure to a still-healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix back in positive territory and looking better than the rest of Europe, no price war until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution currently unlock
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: ever-stronger momentum
Post-Q1 publication and P06 Kantar market share release, we continue to favour Tesco for its over-exposure to a still healthy UK grocery market (no deflation, volume/mix looking better than the rest of Europe, no price war until late 2025) and its robust commercial execution currently unlocking eve
- Clement Genelot
French Food Retail: welcome back to deflation
With France returning to food deflation in May at -0.1%, and the trend set to persist if not worsen over coming months, we foresee even more negative market growth and a greater likelihood of a price war in the short-term. Among the key grocery markets, France is becoming the hotspot, fuelling our
- Clement Genelot
UK food retail: stronger momentum for Tesco in a still healthy market
Kantar's P04 2024 data revealed a continued divergence between Tesco/Sainsbury's and Asda/Morrisons while trends are normalising for Aldi/Lidl. The recovery in the market's volume/mix effect and Tesco's market share gains are both accelerating and leave us confident with our Buy rating. Fuelled by
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: Navigating stormy waters of deflation and price war
As food deflation risks increasingly diverge from one market to another, we take a fresh look at local price war risks and at the sector earnings cycle. We remain puzzled by the YTD sector derating and underperformance while FY 2024-25 expected EPS growth is still strong. Many investors seem to be
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Building credibility as a defensive yield story (coverage initi...
In a food retail industry that has to slalom between the risks of food deflation and price wars in 2024, we are initiating coverage of Tesco at Buy to play its very high exposure to a still-growing and rational UK market. Tesco's earnings beat and raise cycle does not seem over to us, while its imp
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: diverging growth/FCF profiles
Post TKWY and ROO's Q1 figures and ahead of DHER's publication, we note an improving growth trend in Q1. This growth will nevertheless have to rebalance towards orders as out-of-home food is also set to face disinflation this year. The ability to recreate HSD% growth will be the name of the 2024-25
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #23
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the recovery in global passenger air traffic. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b
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