reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #71
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how tariffs have dominated recent earnings calls over other topics such a
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: trade war lifted multiples, beware of future sector rotat...
European food retail enjoyed a paradoxical 1.5x P/E expansion vs. deteriorating earnings trend YTD now turning negative, fuelled by a sector rotation with investors looking for defensive stocks. With trade wars easing, we have reviewed the valuation, earnings momentum and sector indicators for each
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: PT aligned with DoorDash offer
Following the confirmation of a 180p/share cash bid by DoorDash (first analysed here), we have downgraded our rating from Buy to Neutral and aligned our PT with the offer at 180p.We will recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the upcoming court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under the UK C
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #68
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at fragile US consumer sentiment which might precede a sharp pullback in spe
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #67
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the largest beauty groups in the world. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: your DoorDash rider is on the way with a 180p offer
Our late February Buy upgrade thesis is taking shape with DoorDash making an indicative 180p/share cash offer (to be confirmed by 23rd May). The price looks decent, but not spectacular, with a 23% premium and an implied 12x EV/EBITDA, and the likelihood of a counter-bid seems very low. Negative rea
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: Buy rating untouched after earnings recalibration
Post-FY, we have cut our sales, EBIT and retail FCF estimates by 1%, 5% and 8% respectively, to reflect price investments made YTD in the UK. However, we do not expect a full-blown price war with the need to further reinvest, and are pricing in the top-end of FY EBIT guidance. Consensus has recalib
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: controlled reinvestments in 2025, untouched business model
Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as a year of reinvestment set to fuel longer-term growth and implying a smaller margin expansion than usual. Whether these investments are purely proactive or in response to the ongoing acquisition of JET by Prosus, we expect a higher pace of growth going forward and have
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: can Asda really revive the price war in the UK?
As Asda's new leader sends the group to the front line with a very aggressive and risky price repositioning plan, we struggle to identify a scenario whereby Asda would have enough ammunition to hold out. The feared scenario of a revived price war in the UK is not (yet) here, but we are adopting a s
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #61
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's hectic trade policy impacts US consumer sentiment. Happy read
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: when speculative appeal knocks at your door
With Prosus acquiring Just Eat Takeaway (as detailed in our other note on Just Eat Takeaway), M&A activity in the European food delivery sector is set to pick up. While timing considerations of a potential Delivery Hero delisting by Prosus remain uncertain, we prefer to bet on a closer acquisit
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #58
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the drivers behdind the busy M&A activity in Beauty. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: sacrificing a short-term guidance upgrade for longer-term volum...
The Christmas period was strong with Tesco proactively investing further and building volume momentum. The group has traded in a potential guidance upgrade for longer-term volume gains, which makes sense in view of its competitors' limited room for manoeuvre. Buy reiterated with a 403p PT and persi
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Clement Genelot
Tesco: UK budget's extra staff costs eventually positive for competiti...
With the UK budget for 2025 set to onboard more staff costs for all food retailers o/w GBP460m estimated for Tesco, we remain confident in the group's ability to mitigate the impact with cost-savings while the UK's two laggards, Asda and Morrisons, look set to be squeezed for longer. As the UK groc
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #46
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
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