reports
- Clément Genelot
Deliveroo: strengthening growth/margin profile ahead of DoorDash deal
Post-another strong print and FY guidance upgrade, fuelled by a recovery in order growth and market share gains, we see more credibility in Deliveroo's MT targets and have increased our EBITDA and FCF estimates by 8% and 11%. PT unchanged at 180p to stick to the DoorDash offer, which we view as fai
- Cédric Rossi
- Clément Genelot
Fashion: navigating a cautious summer
Based on recent market trends, the start of Q3 appears to be a continuation of the softness observed in May and June for the fashion industry, as prolonged macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer spending. This environment has prompted a wait-and-see approach amo
- Cédric Rossi
- Clément Genelot
Fashion: No sign of spring in second quarter
As we feared in our February sector update, tariffs took a toll on US consumer sentiment, prompting shoppers to become more cautious on discretionary spending. European optimism ticked up marginally as did spending intentions, leading to soft market trends in May-June. In view of constrained pricin
- Cédric Rossi
Inditex: normalised, not neutralised (cancel & replace)
Whereas Q1 results broadly met expectations, current trading was again underwhelming, with sales from 1st May to 9th June up 6% FX-n (vs. CSSe c.+7%), reflecting volatile demand and a tough comp base. We have trimmed our FY25 estimates by 3% to account for the ongoing normalisation phase and a more
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #71
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how tariffs have dominated recent earnings calls over other topics such a
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: PT aligned with DoorDash offer
Following the confirmation of a 180p/share cash bid by DoorDash (first analysed here), we have downgraded our rating from Buy to Neutral and aligned our PT with the offer at 180p.We will recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the upcoming court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under the UK C
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #67
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the largest beauty groups in the world. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: your DoorDash rider is on the way with a 180p offer
Our late February Buy upgrade thesis is taking shape with DoorDash making an indicative 180p/share cash offer (to be confirmed by 23rd May). The price looks decent, but not spectacular, with a 23% premium and an implied 12x EV/EBITDA, and the likelihood of a counter-bid seems very low. Negative rea
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
Fashion disruption: will de minimis reforms trigger "de maximis" marke...
In addition to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration is also closing the Chinese de minimis loophole from 1st May onwards, which will considerably disrupt the business model of major platforms like Shein and Temu in the US. Although this new market paradigm could be wel
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
Sporting Goods: reciprocal tariffs, the last straw?
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan announced on 2nd April now applies huge tariff rates to new countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, which are key in the sourcing of US footwear and apparel. Although apparel and footwear are already heavily taxed at an average of 14.6% and 12.3% respectively, compar
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: controlled reinvestments in 2025, untouched business model
Post-FY 2024, we see 2025 as a year of reinvestment set to fuel longer-term growth and implying a smaller margin expansion than usual. Whether these investments are purely proactive or in response to the ongoing acquisition of JET by Prosus, we expect a higher pace of growth going forward and have
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: navigating temporary sales growth hiccups
Whereas the slowdown in current trading was clearly more abrupt than expected, we believe this hiccup is temporary, as shown by the rebound in the first week of March to +7%. The latter is more consistent with our scenario of normalising sales trends towards 7% FX-n growth over the FY25-27 period,
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: sound FY24 results but current trading has decelerated
For the fourth year in a row, Inditex achieved double-digit FX-n sales growth with +10.5% in FY24 with EBIT margin improving by 70bps to a new record level of 19.6%. FY24 total dividend amounted to EUR1.68 and matched expectations. Note that Inditex's current trading only increased by 4% FX-n, part
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #60
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the relative catch-up by European stocks. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: when speculative appeal knocks at your door
With Prosus acquiring Just Eat Takeaway (as detailed in our other note on Just Eat Takeaway), M&A activity in the European food delivery sector is set to pick up. While timing considerations of a potential Delivery Hero delisting by Prosus remain uncertain, we prefer to bet on a closer acquisit
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #58
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the drivers behdind the busy M&A activity in Beauty. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #57
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage: Luxury goods, Cosmetics, Consumer goods and Retail & E-commerce. This week, we look at the Fed's dilemma between its "wait-and-see" stance and mitigating the potential inflationar
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: stay covered to thrive in the uncertain fashion world
Trump's tariff tactics confirm that the fashion industry is in for another volatile and uncertain year in 2025. Relatively resilient market trends across Europe and the US mask the growing number of price-sensitive consumers, forcing fashion groups to choose between top-line growth and margin prote
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