reports
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: when speculative appeal knocks at your door
With Prosus acquiring Just Eat Takeaway (as detailed in our other note on Just Eat Takeaway), M&A activity in the European food delivery sector is set to pick up. While timing considerations of a potential Delivery Hero delisting by Prosus remain uncertain, we prefer to bet on a closer acquisit
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #58
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the drivers behdind the busy M&A activity in Beauty. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #57
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage: Luxury goods, Cosmetics, Consumer goods and Retail & E-commerce. This week, we look at the Fed's dilemma between its "wait-and-see" stance and mitigating the potential inflationar
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: stay covered to thrive in the uncertain fashion world
Trump's tariff tactics confirm that the fashion industry is in for another volatile and uncertain year in 2025. Relatively resilient market trends across Europe and the US mask the growing number of price-sensitive consumers, forcing fashion groups to choose between top-line growth and margin prote
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #52
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. For the last Consumer Weekly of 2024, we look at the normal inertia effect between improving US
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex not immune to temporary bumps
Unsurprisingly, the combination of demanding market expectations and softer Q3 numbers triggered some profit-taking moves after the stock's 41% YTD rally. As flagged in our comment yesterday, the Q3 miss was largely due to FX headwinds, but during the call management guided for a moderate impact in
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex Q3 2024 results: sales and EBIT miss, in-line current trading
This morning Inditex's Q3 results missed CSSe both on sales and EBIT, by 2% and 5% respectively. A more harmful FX headwind hampered the sales performance as ITX reached a 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit FX-n sales growth (+11%), while the EBIT miss was mainly caused by the GM erosion of 2
- Clement Genelot
UK Retail: relief on relatively unharmful 2025 budget
The tax increases outlined in the UK's 2025 budget have proved to be skewed towards corporates and wealthy households with the prospect of manageable extra-staff costs for Tesco (Buy) and Deliveroo (Neutral) and better purchasing power prospects, fuelling a continued recovery in grocery volume &
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #39
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we discuss the Fed's upcoming meeting and rate cut. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: strong momentum keeps rolling
Among the four main pillars of its "To the Next Level" strategy, initiatives around Customer Experience (e.g.: store optimisation, roll-out of Zara Streaming Experience, etc.) are delivering the most visible results at both the sales and profit levels. They also support our scenario for profitable
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: sound Q2 results and current trading
Despite adverse weather conditions during the summer, Inditex has unveiled strong Q2 results this morning with: double-digit FX-n sales growth for the 14th consecutive quarter (+10%) and a solid 100bp-improvement in EBIT margin to 19.2% (CSSe: 18.9%). This momentum has not waned with sales between
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: sweet or sour Back-to-School?
While publications of US retailers this week (e.g.: Gap, Abercrombie & Fitch, lululemon, etc) should give the market a clearer view of the US consumer mood, the European consumer mindset is set to be reflected in H&M and Inditex's publications next month. As expected, the summer has been no
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: improving profile, but still limited upside
Post-Q2 publication, we have lifted our PT from 122p to 140p to reflect better EBITDA margin development and the GBP150m share buyback. In spite of improving growth / profitability / FCF profile, it is still too early to value Deliveroo as a traditional restaurant as FY 2025-26 sales growth and EBI
- Clement Genelot
Deliveroo: EBITDA overdelivers and GBP150m buyback
Deliveroo disappointed on sales in Q2 due to lower take rate in the UK & Ireland, reflecting higher investments to reboost demand and to retake market share recently lost to Just Eat. But the group's ability to overdeliver on EBITDA might prompt some consensus upgrades on top of a new GBP150m s
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: will plans to impose duties on cheap goods disrupt Shein and ...
The very competitive prices offered by Shein and Temu stem from their ability to take advantage of tax loopholes allowing parcels to be shipped without having to pay duties and taxes as long as they are under a certain value. As the EU Commission is moving to scrap the EU's EUR150 import tax loopho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: consumers backpedaling on sustainability due to inflation
In our recent Fashion report "Is sustainability the new luxury?", we were highlighting the green consumer paradox vis-a-vis sustainable brands. A McKinsey survey just discovered that consumers are indeed de-emphasising the importance of ESG in their purchases in an inflation-impacted world. This wo
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #32
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a fresher look at the (still ongoing) Red Sea freight crisis. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: defying gravity
In our sector update last week, we highlighted that it was becoming hard for ITX to beat the CSS which has been revising estimates upwards over the past two years. And yet, ITX unveiled a good set of Q1 numbers yesterday, marked by a 13th consecutive quarter of double-digit FX-n sales growth, and,
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