EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 24% yoy, 7% below the consensus NEUTRAL • Arcelik: weak operating performance in 4Q23 results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (26 February-3 March) • 4iG: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: February bookings estimate at USD 13m, up 5% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: February total bookings estimate flat mom, but further declines in ...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 4Q23 preliminary results in line with the January guidance, strong gross margin of 14.4% NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: HyperPIC selected for PLN 453.6m co-financing under the European Funds for a Modern Economy 2021-2027 POSITIVE • Polish banks: PLN 1,563m of sector contributions to resolution fund in 2024E, guarantee fund contributions still suspended • PZU: most of the Management Board dismissed, but CFO stays • OMV Petrom: signs financing agreement through recovery plan for ...
HEADLINES: • Public Power Corporation: shifting into high gear (stays BUY) • Turkey macro: CBRT extends the cautious pause • Magyar Telekom: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 16% yoy, in line with the consensus; strong 2024E guidance POSITIVE • NLB Group: strong 4Q23 results and massive increase in 2023 dividends POSITIVE • Kruk: announces PLN 1,012m of 2023E net profit NEUTRAL • OTE: 4Q23 results review – solid quarter, with 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth; EUR 450m shareholders' payout guidance PO...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: 3Q23 on track for best year ever, 3Q beat on better cost control POSITIVE • AmRest: 3% EBITDA beat in 3Q23 on improving margins POSITIVE • Bank of Georgia: 3Q23 highlights, before the call - good quarter • Hidroelectrica: 3Q23 net profit of RON 1.2bn, 30% higher yoy and 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 3Q23 net profit 27% higher than our estimate, on higher other income • Conpet: 3Q23 net profit rebounds qoq and stands 9% higher yoy POSITIVE • Tr...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: en route to the best year on record, by far (stays HOLD) • Alro: deep net loss of RON 230m in 3Q23 NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: 3Q23 reported net profit 4% lower yoy, fully in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: solid 3Q23 results, but spoiled, once again, by the Volksbank saga • Graphisoft Park: 3Q23 - steady as she goes • OTE: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • MedLife: targeting return to c.15% EBITDA margins NEUTRAL • ADNOC D...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
After a very abrupt correction after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, when Purcari Wineries’ (Purcari) share price lost almost half its value, the stock began to recover gradually from the beginning of 2023, with the share price delivering a 47% increase in value ytd. In the meantime, its wine sales performance was impressive, with the 2022 sales up 18% yoy, despite the loss of sales to Belarus, Russia and, partly, Ukraine. In 1H23, wine sales increased by an even more impressive 29% yoy...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Greece macro: still on a promising growth trajectory • Jahez: 1H23 earnings miss, announces 20:1 stock split NEGATIVE • 4iG: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 August-3 September) • Wizz Air: trends in August little changed vs. July NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: August bookings estimate up 23% mom, driven by the flagship games POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: August bookings flat mom, Wings of Heroes up slightly NEUTRAL • ONE United Propert...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: costly diversified business (stays HOLD) • LiveChat Software: 1Q23-24 results - EBITDA up 26% yoy, in line with our estimates and consensus NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: launches online webstore, enabling new forms of in-game purchases NEUTRAL • MedLife: 2Q23 was an inflection point for margins POSITIVE • DIGI Communications: concludes national roaming agreement in Belgium NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: ...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: green yields (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: posts solid 2Q23 results • Orlen: 2Q23 results • CA Immo: 2Q23 - FFO picks up pace qoq, EUR 543m of disposals at 38% premium to book closed ytd POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 2Q23 weakness resulted mostly from FX impact, no fundamental changes in the business POSITIVE • GTC: 2Q23 - recurring in line, books 2% write-down on portfolio, driven mostly by Polish assets NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: 21% beat vs. our net profi...
HEADLINES: • NEPI Rockcastle: 1H23 - as if COVID-19 never happened POSITIVE • CD Projekt: presents new gameplay trailer of Phantom Liberty at Gamescom 2023 NEUTRAL • PCF Group: Bulletstorm VR (previously Thunder) to be released on 14 December 2023 • Purcari Wineries: 2Q23E results preview (due out tomorrow) • Polish utilities: 2Q23E - strong results, despite weak volumes and windfall tax (due in September)
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • CE4 macro: 1Q23 GDP confirms the expected relative performances, with upside for Poland • Bank of Cyprus: a solid start in 1Q23, ahead of the FY23E targets POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q23 results - strong start to the year, with high fares and good cost control POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 1Q23 results just in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call • Transelectrica: takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call NEGATIVE • Solution...
HEADLINES: • Purcari: 1Q23 results show strong sales growth POSITIVE • Transgaz: stronger 1Q23 net profit than expected, on lower impairments of receivables NEUTRAL • Alro: net loss reported for 1Q23 NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 1Q23 in line, as higher revenue compensated for a lower gross profit margin NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica 1Q23 results • Nuclearelectrica: takeaways...
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