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QuickView: Slower progress, but moving in right direction
TransAtlantic (TAT) reported mixed Q215 results on 7 August, which reflected the decline in oil prices. With no wells completed in Q2, production started to slide from its Q1 peak and fell 4% q-o-q to 5.9mboe/d. Cost reductions were slightly below our expectations and operating cash flow of $8.0m was below capex of $10.2m, leaving TAT to draw from its cash pile to cover debt repayments. The dip in oil prices back to $50/bbl Brent may lead TAT to conserve cash and further trim capex until the nex...
Update: Resilient in the storm
TransAtlantic (TAT) released solid FY14 results on 16 March, which showed good operational momentum. TAT is making progress on the integration of Stream’s Albanian assets and on its various production growth initiatives in Turkey, notably horizontal drilling and the waterflood pilot at Selmo, and drilling success at Molla. The relatively short-cycle nature of TAT’s assets in Turkey and Albania, low break-evens and capex flexibility mean its business model is more resilient than for many E&Ps...
Update: Approved Stream acquisition sets the tone in Q4
TransAtlantic has released a good set of Q314 financial and operational results, realising an oil production high of 3.7mb/d and with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in net income to US$8.3m. Results were driven by solid operations in south-east Turkey, as well as a lack of one-off provisions and abandonment charges. In our view, current oil prices could potentially bring Turkey and Bulgarian gas assets back into focus in 2015, while the approved acquisition of Stream Oil and Gas adds ...
Update: Stream acquisition delivered in an all-share deal
TransAtlantic Petroleum is set to close its all-share acquisition of Stream Oil and Gas by November 2014, subject to approvals. We expect this will provide sufficient time to line up a full year of production in Albania, an assumption that has led us to raise our FY15 oil and gas estimates by 21% to 8.9boe/d and increase our EBITDA forecast by 8% to US$126m. Our models point to an EV of US$80m for purchased Stream assets, realising an equity value of US$55m after accounting for assumed net debt,...
Update: On track and moving forward
TransAtlantic Petroleum (TAT) has reported record revenues of US$41.1m for Q214, which together with previously released sales volumes of 5.0mboe/d for the quarter, begin to frame an encouraging trend that the company is well on track to meet targeted exit rate of 6.3mboe/d by year-end 2014. Based on the year-to-date successes of the 33-well drilling programme, we are modelling production rates of over 8.0mboe/d by YE15, which we expect to be driven by North American horizontal drilling, complet...
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