DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - ROE and fee income targets raised

At its 2024 CMD, DNB raised its ROE target from >13% to >14% for 2025–2027. Targeting a CET1 ratio of >16.7% (supervisory expectation), the bank kept its dividend policy of nominally increasing cash dividends, a >50% payout ratio and share buybacks to optimise its capital position. While it continues to target 3–4% annual lending growth and a 9% (previously 4–5%).

CMD: ROE target upped to >14%

Heads-up for CMD 19 November

Norwegian banks: Q3'24 outcome vs. expectations

DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Focus on key 2027 financial targets

With 2022–2024 YTD ROEs of ~15–17%, DNB has continuously hit its >13% target set in 2022, with ample headroom. While expecting some margin pressure, we believe still-high interest rates, capital-light revenue momentum and robust asset quality bode well for continued strong earnings generation. At the CMD scheduled for 19 November, we expect the main focus to be on the new financial targets towards 2027, and see scope for its ROE target to be raised to >14%.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies October 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending September 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending September 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending September 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending September 2024

Adding Carnegie looks good on paper

DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Fee income continues to advance

Fuelled by sustained core revenue momentum, low loan losses and a NOK716m gain from the Fremtind and Eika Forsikring merger, DNB reported a strong Q3 ROE of 18.9% (18.0% adjusted for the latter). Fee income rose by 11.1% YOY, mainly driven by asset management and investment banking services. The CET1 ratio was 19.0%, flat QOQ, leaving still-solid headroom of ~2.2%-points to its supervisory expectation. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, largely explained by higher core revenues.

Q3: adj PTP beat 3-7% from NII, fees & AQ

Adj. PTP +3%/+7% and adj. PBLL +1%/+3% vs. ABG/cons. Beat driven by NII, fees & loan losses vs consensus. Cons.est. 1-3% for 25e-26e (fees/LLP); stock up 1-4%.

DNB buys Carnegie Holding

Heads-up for Q3 report 22 October

Banks Q3'24e: Rate pressure, but 2026e intact

Q3e: NII still to peak

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies September 202...

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending August 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending August 2024