Adding Carnegie looks good on paper

DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Fee income continues to advance

Fuelled by sustained core revenue momentum, low loan losses and a NOK716m gain from the Fremtind and Eika Forsikring merger, DNB reported a strong Q3 ROE of 18.9% (18.0% adjusted for the latter). Fee income rose by 11.1% YOY, mainly driven by asset management and investment banking services. The CET1 ratio was 19.0%, flat QOQ, leaving still-solid headroom of ~2.2%-points to its supervisory expectation. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, largely explained by higher core revenues.

Q3: adj PTP beat 3-7% from NII, fees & AQ

Adj. PTP +3%/+7% and adj. PBLL +1%/+3% vs. ABG/cons. Beat driven by NII, fees & loan losses vs consensus. Cons.est. 1-3% for 25e-26e (fees/LLP); stock up 1-4%.

Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Set for return to growth

We are seeing early signs of recovery in Smartoptics’ markets following a challenging downcycle, and see a plausible path to revenue growth for the company from Q4. While we have made material cuts to our estimates, we continue to like the story on our view of an approaching upcycle in optical networking equipment and what appears to be AI-induced growth in demand for bandwidth in DCI and enterprise networking. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.

DNB buys Carnegie Holding

Time to realise the project portfolio

Heads-up for Q3 report 22 October

Banks Q3'24e: Rate pressure, but 2026e intact

Q3e: NII still to peak

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Well above consensus on Q3e order intake

We are broadly in line with Infront consensus on Q3e revenue (+1%) and EBIT (+2%), but after updating for announced orders, we are now c27% above on order intake for the quarter (the Q3 results are due at c07:00 CET on 25 October). In turn, we have raised our 2025–2026e revenue and EPS by c2%, and our target price to SEK190 (175), also factoring in higher peer multiples. We reiterate our BUY

September was a bit softer than expected

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies September 202...

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending August 2024

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - All eyes on crucial winter season

Despite low comparable figures and improved winter-tyre channels YOY, we are cautious ahead of the Q3 report as: 1) consensus is for c17% organic growth for H2, while peers have reported low-to-mid-single-digit sales trends; 2) we believe weak new car sales in Europe could hit winter-tyre demand (often sold as add-ons); and 3) consumers may have continued to favour budget over premium tyres. However, we have raised our target price to EUR9.0 (8.5) on good progress in ramping up new capacity, and...

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending August 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending August 2024

New CK3 expansion off to a good start

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Sector-leading FCF growth s...

We believe the market is increasingly willing to look past a 2024 plagued by cancellations and postponements and focus on the core portfolio and return to earnings growth for 2025e. While we have lowered our 2025e EBIT by 5%, we have increased our 2025–2026e FCF by 5–8% to account for the improving capex profile. We reiterate our BUY and SEK240 target price ahead of the Q3 results.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending August 2024