Nordic banks – Statistical update – Finnish lending, February 2025

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending, February 2025

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending February 2025

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending February 2025

Outlook for continued high rates

Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.

Sparebanken Vest: 3 directors

Three Directors at Sparebanken Vest sold 86,280 shares at between 147.633NOK and 148.500NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over...

Bank Brunch/Deutsche Bank makes a decision on its AT1 calls, Sparebank...

Deutsche Bank makes a decision on its AT1 calls. Sparebanken Vest covered bond

Bank Brunch/Deutsche Bank makes a decision on its AT1 calls, Sparebank...

Deutsche Bank takes a dynamic approach for its AT1 calls. Another day, another Norwegian covered bond.

Synergies vs. EPS headwinds

Nordic banks — Statistical update — Swedish bankruptcies February 2025

Nordic banks — Statistical update — Danish lending January 2025

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending January 2025

Nordic banks — Statistical update — Swedish lending, January 2025

Norwegian banks: Q4'24 outcome vs. expectations

Disappointing DPS given CET1 headroom

Adj. PTP beat of 4%/7% vs. ABGSCe/cons, driven by costs; Positive P&L revisions driven by other costs; Valuation in line with fundamentals

Raising dividend expectations

Adj. PTP 5% below ABGSCe & consensus due to non-NII; Higher CET raises DPS expectations; Strong fundamentals reflected in decent valuation: HOLD

ROE >14% in 2027 seems unlikely

SpareBank1 Nord-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK130.00) - Still-strong profitabili...

Helped by a NOK176m one-off gain, solid core revenues and modest loan losses, NONG reported a strong Q4 ROE of 18.9%. The board proposed a NOK8.75 2024 DPS, implying a ~54% payout ratio (>50% policy) and a 6.7% dividend yield. We have raised our 2026e EPS by ~2%, and our target price to NOK130 (123). That said, with the stock trading at a dividend-adjusted 2026e P/E of 10.0x, we still see a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD.

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK158.00) - Solid post-merger quarte...

Helped by strong core revenues, ROE was 11.5% in Q4 (Totens Sparebank included from 1 November), despite somewhat elevated costs (partly driven by one-offs) and loan losses. Implying a ~60% payout ratio and a 6.3% dividend yield, the board proposed a 2024 DPS of NOK10.3. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~3%, and our target price to NOK158 (150). That said, at a dividend-adjusted 2026e P/E of 10.2x, we still find the valuation fair and reiterate our HOLD.

Better DPS and good guiding weight positive

Adj. PTP -5% vs. ABGSCe & cons, driven by softer income and costs. Repeat its lower future costs growth andguide lending higher (2025). Cons. '25e-'26e EPS rev. trim 1-2%; stock could just hold up (DPS)