SBAB - Meeting the Head of Treasury

A small step in their broader plan

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK167.00) - Softer margin, but lower...

Helped by still-solid core revenues, cost reduction YOY and moderate loan losses, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of 12.3%, despite some margin pressure. With solid earnings generation, the bank increased its CET1 ratio by ~20bp to 18.0% and still guides for a 0.8%-point benefit from the implementation of Basel IV, boding well for meaningful distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by 0–1%, That said, we reiterate our target price of NOK167. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~12.4x, we co...

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK168.00) - Improving asset quality

Supported by continued lending growth, low loan losses and good fee income growth, the Q1 ROE was 14.1%, despite somewhat elevated costs and slightly weaker NII. The capital position remains strong, with an end-Q1 CET1 ratio of 17.1% that should be further supported by upcoming regulatory changes. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1–2%, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK168 target price.

Rogaland Sparebank (Hold, TP: NOK137.00) - Stronger capital tailwind o...

Boosted by the distribution of customer dividends, an uptick in NII, even with two fewer interest days QOQ, and moderate loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.2%, despite somewhat softer fee income. The bank adjusted its guided positive impact from the implementation of Basel IV to 3.0%-points (previously 2.6%-points). We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~6%, on higher NII, and our target price to NOK137 (130). At a 2026e P/E of ~12.0x, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector,...

Fundamentals well reflected in pricing

SpareBank 1 Sør-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK180.00) - Strong core revenues

Helped by strong core revenues and limited loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.5%, despite some underlying cost inflation and merger-related costs. Backed by solid earnings generation, the CET1 ratio rose ~30bp QOQ to 18.3%, with an ample buffer to the ~17.6% requirement, boding well for meaningful distributions over our forecast horizon. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by 2–3% on higher NII and fee income, and our target price to NOK180 (170), but continue to find the valuation fair and reiterate ...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK202.00) - Solid core revenue growth

Q1 PTP was NOK1,269m, 6% lower YOY, as stronger ‘real NII’ and fees were offset by soft trading and higher opex. On a QOQ basis, two fewer interest days, and somewhat softer growth, led to a ‘real NII’ decline. With a CET1 ratio of 18.1%, we see continued capital headroom, supportive of solid distributions. We have trimmed our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on the NII trend, but reiterate our BUY and NOK202 target price.

Strong numbers, but pricing is fair

Weaker NII and cost to impact revisions

Adj. PTP -3% vs. ABGSCe, -2% vs. cons; Higher cost to impact revisions; Cons. '25e-27e EPS chg. down 2-4%, stock down 2-4% today

Strong adj. PBLL beat +8% vs. cons

Adj. PBLL +3% vs ABGSCe, and +8% vs. cons; Stronger lending growth and unchanged synergies guidance; Expect cons. adj. EPS up by 2-4% and stock to go 2-5% today

Volume growth & fees keep the pace up

DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Higher fees and improved capital outlook

Helped by still-solid core revenue momentum and modest loan losses, DNB reported a Q1 ROE of 15.9%. Fee income rose by ~30% YOY, driven by the inclusion of Carnegie, from investment banking and asset management services. The CET1 ratio fell by ~90bp QOQ, to 18.5%, mainly explained by the Carnegie acquisition, the ample buffer to its 16.7% supervisory expectation boding well for further generous distributions ahead. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~2%, largely explained by higher core revenu...

Decent Q1-delivery

Adj PTP +2%/+1% and PBLL +3%/0% vs. ABG/cons. Beat driven by asset quality and 2% better income (trading, NII & fees). Cons.est. +1-2% for 25e-27e (NII & fees); stock to hold up.

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies April 2025

Revisions hit by NII and capital synergies

Sparebanken Møre (Hold, TP: NOK95.00) - Higher margin pressure and cos...

With elevated margin pressure and higher costs YOY, Q1 ROE was 11.2%, despite modest loan losses. Given the composition of the lending growth, MORG increased its risk-weight assets, leading to a ~ 20bp lower CET1 ratio QOQ. That said, the bank guided for a net positive effect of ~1.5%-points from the pending implementation of Basel IV in Q2 and Q3, leaving an ample buffer to its 16.15% requirement (including P2G), boding well for solid distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by ~5% on ...

Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK157.00) - Strong pre-merger quarter

Continued solid loan growth, high fees, and a strong trading result helped offset merger-related costs and seasonally soft NII, as SVEG reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,415m, 13% higher YOY, and a Q1 ROE of 21.3%. As capital synergies are expected to offset increased IRB risk weights in the 2 May merger, we continue to find the capital situation supportive for further distributions. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by ~2%, while reiterating our NOK157 target price and our BUY.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending March 2025