Nordic banks – Statistical update – Swedish lending, April 2025

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending April 2025

Nordic banks – Statistical update – Norwegian lending April 2025

Priced for flat interest rates: down to SELL

Insurance trip: 16 insurers in three days

Non-life have price increases > inflation in all markets, most in Norway. Life insurance growth with rapid growth & dividend payments. Prefer ALMB, Sampo, Solid, Tryg among non-life; STB for life

Delivers in-line with expectations

Adj. PTP -1% vs. ABGSCe & cons, driven by mgmt loan loss overlay; Trimmed lending guiding and positive capital revisions; Cons. up for 25e (beat), minor for '26e-'27e, stock to hold up

SBAB - Meeting the Head of Treasury

A small step in their broader plan

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK167.00) - Softer margin, but lower...

Helped by still-solid core revenues, cost reduction YOY and moderate loan losses, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of 12.3%, despite some margin pressure. With solid earnings generation, the bank increased its CET1 ratio by ~20bp to 18.0% and still guides for a 0.8%-point benefit from the implementation of Basel IV, boding well for meaningful distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by 0–1%, That said, we reiterate our target price of NOK167. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~12.4x, we co...

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK168.00) - Improving asset quality

Supported by continued lending growth, low loan losses and good fee income growth, the Q1 ROE was 14.1%, despite somewhat elevated costs and slightly weaker NII. The capital position remains strong, with an end-Q1 CET1 ratio of 17.1% that should be further supported by upcoming regulatory changes. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1–2%, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK168 target price.

Fundamentals well reflected in pricing

SpareBank 1 Sør-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK180.00) - Strong core revenues

Helped by strong core revenues and limited loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.5%, despite some underlying cost inflation and merger-related costs. Backed by solid earnings generation, the CET1 ratio rose ~30bp QOQ to 18.3%, with an ample buffer to the ~17.6% requirement, boding well for meaningful distributions over our forecast horizon. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by 2–3% on higher NII and fee income, and our target price to NOK180 (170), but continue to find the valuation fair and reiterate ...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK202.00) - Solid core revenue growth

Q1 PTP was NOK1,269m, 6% lower YOY, as stronger ‘real NII’ and fees were offset by soft trading and higher opex. On a QOQ basis, two fewer interest days, and somewhat softer growth, led to a ‘real NII’ decline. With a CET1 ratio of 18.1%, we see continued capital headroom, supportive of solid distributions. We have trimmed our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on the NII trend, but reiterate our BUY and NOK202 target price.

Strong numbers, but pricing is fair

Weaker NII and cost to impact revisions

Adj. PTP -3% vs. ABGSCe, -2% vs. cons; Higher cost to impact revisions; Cons. '25e-27e EPS chg. down 2-4%, stock down 2-4% today

Strong adj. PBLL beat +8% vs. cons

Adj. PBLL +3% vs ABGSCe, and +8% vs. cons; Stronger lending growth and unchanged synergies guidance; Expect cons. adj. EPS up by 2-4% and stock to go 2-5% today

Volume growth & fees keep the pace up

DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Higher fees and improved capital outlook

Helped by still-solid core revenue momentum and modest loan losses, DNB reported a Q1 ROE of 15.9%. Fee income rose by ~30% YOY, driven by the inclusion of Carnegie, from investment banking and asset management services. The CET1 ratio fell by ~90bp QOQ, to 18.5%, mainly explained by the Carnegie acquisition, the ample buffer to its 16.7% supervisory expectation boding well for further generous distributions ahead. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~2%, largely explained by higher core revenu...

Decent Q1-delivery

Adj PTP +2%/+1% and PBLL +3%/0% vs. ABG/cons. Beat driven by asset quality and 2% better income (trading, NII & fees). Cons.est. +1-2% for 25e-27e (NII & fees); stock to hold up.

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May