The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/10/2024

Les députés ont supprimé vendredi dernier la surtaxe d’Impôt sur les Sociétés proposée par le gouvernement français dans son PLF 2025. Il serait, selon nous, hasardeux de crier victoire trop tôt, et cette disposition pourrait faire son retour durant la suite du débat budgétaire, sous la forme initialement proposée par le gouvernement ou sous une autre. Nous restons prudents sur les actions françaises, le débat budgétaire restant chaotique et pas à la hauteur des enjeux, comme le souli...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/28/2024

Last Friday, MEPs scrapped the exceptional additional corporate tax proposed by the French government in its PLF 2025. In our view, it would be risky to claim victory prematurely, and this provision could make a comeback during the remainder of the budget debate, in the form initially proposed by the government or in another form. We remain cautious on French equities, as the budget debate remains chaotic and fails to live up to the stakes, as underlined by Moody's downgrade of the so...

Epiroc : Sequential margin improvement but it should remain durably be...

>Q3 2024: growth in orders and revenues (organic) but contraction in the margin - Epiroc reported Q3 2024 results on the morning of Friday, 25 October that exceeded expectations in terms of orders and (organic) revenues, but a shade below for adjusted EBIT (3%). As was the case for Sandvik and Metso during the week, order intake was buoyant, with organic growth of 6% (consensus at 4.2%), including a 9% rise for E&S (11% for the equipment segment, with a record qu...

Epiroc : Une marge en amélioration séquentielle mais qui devrait reste...

>T3 2024 : commandes et CA en croissance (organique) mais marge en recul - Epiroc a publié vendredi matin ses résultats T3 2024, qui étaient supérieurs aux attentes sur les commandes et le CA (organique), mais légèrement en dessous en ce qui concerne l'EBIT ajusté (3%). Comme pour Sandvik et Metso cette semaine, les prises de commandes étaient bien orientées avec une croissance organique de 6% (css à 4.2 %), dont une hausse de 9% pour E&S (11% pour la partie équi...

Epiroc (Hold, TP: SEK215.00) - Margins still not meeting forecast

The Q3 report was in line overall, with orders and sales exactly in line with and adj. EBIT -1% versus consensus; however, the underlying margin again fell shy (50–60bp below in both divisions but only 20bp below consensus on group, as corporate costs were lower than expected). Epiroc guided for near-term demand to remain high in mining and remain weak in construction. We have made minor changes to our estimates and reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK215 (205).

Undramatic Q3, premium limits upside

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/25/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/10/2024

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Epiroc : Mixed Q3 results with good order level but margin below expec...

>Q3 2024: strong orders (+6%) but margin still below consensus (19.7% vs 20%) - Epiroc reported this morning, its Q3 2024 results which slightly beat expectations on order intake but fell some way short on adjusted EBIT (3%).Order intake came in 6% higher in organic terms (consensus at 4.2%), underpinned by large orders (SEK 1,400m vs SEK 1,000m in Q3 2023) with E&S up 9% (including +11% for Equipment only) and T&A flat (supported by the demand for ground engagin...

Epiroc : Mixed Q3 results with good order level but margin below expec...

>Q3 2024: strong orders (+6%) but margin still below consensus (19.7% vs 20%) - Epiroc reported this morning, its Q3 2024 results which slightly beat expectations on order intake but fell some way short on adjusted EBIT (3%).Order intake came in 6% higher in organic terms (consensus at 4.2%), underpinned by large orders (SEK 1,400m vs SEK 1,000m in Q3 2023) with E&S up 9% (including +11% for Equipment only) and T&A flat (supported by the demand for ground engagin...

Close to expectations

Volvo Cars (Hold, TP: SEK25.00) - Margins up, guidance down – again

The Q3 report was mixed, with solid earnings beats but lowered 2024 retail sales and cash flow guidance. The report has not changed our neutral view on the stock, with several risks balanced by a low valuation, in our opinion. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 15%, while 2025–2026e are broadly unchanged, on which we are still 19–38% below consensus. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK25 (28).

Heads-up for report 25 October

ODDO : Q3 2024 preview: good order levels expected in Q3 and China rai...

>Still healthy commodities prices and demand that could accelerate if Chinese recovery materialises - In Q3, the trends remained broadly unchanged with demand stable at a high level in the mining sector, and limited demand in the construction sector (continuation – and end – of destocking by distributors and core demand still lacklustre in the short term, particularly in Europe). Detailed previews on page 2.The main commodities prices have held up relatively well...

ODDO : Preview T3 2024 : le bon niveau de commandes attendues au T3 et...

>Des cours de matières premières toujours bien orientés et une demande qui pourrait accélérer si le rebond chinois se matérialise - Lors du T3, les tendances sont restées globalement inchangées avec une demande stable sur des niveaux élevés sur le secteur minier, et une faible demande sur le secteur de la construction (poursuite – et fin – du déstockage des distributeurs et demande sous-jacente toujours mal orientée à CT, notamment en Europe). Previews détaillés en pa...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/14/2024

We are removing GSK from our European Large Caps Convictions List. The company is the only one of the six Big Pharma groups to have experienced a break in trend, which could act as a drag on future publications. Our analyst adjusted this morning his EPS estimates for 2024/2025/2026 by -0.6%, 2.0% and- 3.4% respectively, factoring in weaker growth for Arexvy and Shingrix, hence the lowering of his target price from 2,150p to 1,900p. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 14/10/2024

Nous sortons GSK de notre liste de valeurs recommandées Large Caps. La société est la seule des 6 big Pharma à connaître une rupture de tendance qui pourrait peser lors des prochaines publications. Notre analyste ajuste ce jour ses prévisions de BPA 24/25/26 de -0.6%/-2.0%/-3.4% intégrant une plus faible croissance pour Arexvy et Shingrix, ce qui conduit à une baisse de son objectif de cours de 2 150p à 1 900p. - ...

The Capital Goods Data Miner - October 2024