We view the Q1 results as solid overall given the c5% adj. EBITA beat versus our estimate and consensus, which was mainly driven by stronger profitability. As a result, we have raised our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by 2% on average. Management appears optimistic about the growth potential in 2025, partly helped by continued positive price effects in the US. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK168 (165), and continue to see Beijer Ref as a strong growth story.
We estimate Q1 sales of SEK8,709m, organic growth of c5% YOY, and adj. EBITA of SEK795m (6% below consensus). We have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by c9% on average (mainly due to FX, but also somewhat reduced demand estimates). We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK165 (182) on our updated valuation and estimates.
Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...
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