ABGSC Shipping Daily 31 March

25% tariff on US car imports

Yesterday’s news is likely to weigh on the car carrier sector as it strikes at the core of shipping demand. We would expect headwinds for the stocks.

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Market chatter yields buying opportunity

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Hold, TP: NOK104.00) - At the tipping point into...

The Q4 report confirmed to us that the best is probably behind us, as Q1 should see a YOY drop in EBITDA, and mounting uncertainties dampen the car shipping market outlook. However, we believe substantial cash flows for 2025–2027e should limit the downside risk. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK104 (116).

~40% annual dividend yield for '25e and '26e

Q4 DPS miss, soft Q1'25 guiding

EBITDA USD 179m (ABGSC USD 185m, cons USD 181m). Q1'25 EBITDA to be "...slightly below same quarter last year". Share price down 2-4%.

Weak start to '25, but gross rate above our estimate

Net rates of USD 82.1/CBM in January, down 2.4% from December. ~23% downside to consensus Q1'25e EBITDA. A weak start to the year.

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Valuations to withstand trouble

We foresee increasing risks to continued demand growth on headwinds for Chinese export growth, while facing a hefty delivery schedule. Add to this the potential return to Red Sea transits, and we find rates should be under pressure and inevitably deteriorate the earnings potential for our covered companies. However, the attractive backlogs secure sizable value in near-term cash flows, offsetting much of the risk. Due to diverging valuations, we reiterate our BUY on Wallenius Wilhelmsen but have ...

ABGSC Shipping Daily 21 January

Tanker, dry bulk and LPG markets down; SNI Q4 preview: Downside to '25e consensus, but upside to DPS

ABGSC Shipping Daily 17 January

ABGSC Shipping Daily 15 January

Tanker markets up, dry bulk and LPG down; Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.78x; Tanker and dry bulk sector report: 2025 could be wild. Or not; HAUTO trading update: Another solid quarter; KCC business update - ~9% downside to cons. Q4 EBITDA; DHT Q4 Business Update, 10% downside to consensus Q

Another solid quarter

Net rates of USD 84.1/CBM in December, down 3.9% from November. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. As expected, share to trade flat relative to peers.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 14 January

Tanker and LPG markets up, mixed in dry bulk, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.76x, Car shipping: CAAM forecasts 2025 Chinese vehicle export up 5.8% y-o-y (ABGSCe at +6.0%)Gulf of Aden arrivals down 72% by capacity, Panama Canal - Transits remains in line with pre-drought levels, Gatun Lake mo

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 January

ABGSC Shipping Daily 6 January

Mixed dry bulk markets, container up, tankers and LPG down, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.72x, no significant changes to asset values, Car shipping (WAWI, HAUTO): The largest USD/day decline in 1YR TC rates since 2008, Overview of recent sanctioning of "the dark fleet"

ABGSC Shipping Daily 20 December

Car shipping sector report: Still tight, though fleet growth is accelerating, Gulf of Aden arrivals down 74% by capacity, Panama Canal - Transits in line with pre-drought levels, Gatun Lake monitor - Water levels projected lower.

Still tight, though fleet growth is accelerating

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