Grimaldi acquires ~5% stake in HAUTO

Grimaldi acquires a 5.12% stake in HAUTO. Who is Grimaldi? HAUTO current NAV of NOK 134/sh adj. dividend paid yesterday

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK161.00) - Ample shareholder returns ...

We have made limited estimate revisions following the Q1 report. We believe the car carrier market remains tight, leaving strong potential for further legacy contract renewals with more than a doubling of rates to support elevated earnings and cash flow in the years ahead. Given the company’s dividend policy, we forecast a 2024–2026 DPS of cNOK90, covering c85% of the current share price. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK161 (151).

Still strong outlook, but later NB deliveries

Short-term estimates up slightly, '25e-'26e down on new NB schedule. 25% above cons. net profit for '25e. TP of NOK 181 (176) – BUY.

Red Sea diversions is a smaller problem than expected

EBITDA USD 162m (ABGSC USD 149m, cons USD 167m). Red Sea annual volume loss of "800 000-900 000 cbm" . Share price up 1-3%.

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK151.00) - Cost of disruption in focu...

Höegh Autoliners has released its Q1 headline revenues in its monthly updates, but costs relating to the Red Sea disruptions remain unknown. We expect a Q1 EBITDA margin of 49%, which we find favourable despite being the lowest since Q1 2023. We have also cut our estimates, owing to the announced sale of two vessels. In our view, the car carrier markets remain healthy and supportive of future contract renewals and positive earnings momentum. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target pric...

A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - One bird in hand, more on ...

The car carriers are showcasing an impressive cash flow from strong markets, and those markets are supporting the long-term outlook by providing appealing long-term deals, derisking cash flows in our opinion. With our sights on 2026e, we believe shareholder returns should cover ~70% of the current share price, even as markets normalise. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price up to NOK160 (145).

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK145.00) - ~70% of cap in FCFE by 202...

Car carriers’ earnings visibility is increasing as legacy contracts are rolled over into long-term commitments at attractive rates in a market that still looks undersupplied for vessels near-term. The increased visibility underpins our valuation, as we expect ~70% of the company’s market cap to be covered by FCFE by end-2025, most of which should be as dividends. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK145 (124).

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK124.00) - Committed to shareholder r...

With Q3 revenues preannounced and the cost beat, Höegh’s EBITDA margin reached 52%. It confirmed its commitment to shareholder returns once the boxes are checked for solidity and fleet renewal. The equity ratio approaching 70% and attractive financing in place for future capex fulfils the former, and its 12 newbuilds the latter. Hence, FCFE covering 62% of the market cap in two years is lined up for dividends. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK124 (112).

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK112.00) - Another quarter in the bag

The group’s monthly updates indicate it had another strong quarter, and we see prospects of many more, as solid supply and demand fundamentals fend off a wave of deliveries in the coming years. Despite brewing political risk and a sluggish macro outlook, we still find the stock attractively valued. Hence, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK112 (107).

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK107.00) - Solidifying a strong outlo...

We were positively surprised by Höegh Autoliners’s recent contract renewals, with prospects for more to come. As we believe the tight markets should persist well into 2024e, 50% of annual volumes could be rolled over to better rates and durations. The implied support should help solidify the cash flow potential near- and medium-term, which we believe is far from reflected in its current valuation. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK107 (96).

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates ahead of the Q2 results (due at 07:30 CET on 17 August). We have aligned our near-term estimates with the company’s monthly updates and made minor modelling adjustments, which leaves us 10% above Bloomberg consensus on Q2e EBITDA. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have lowered our target price to NOK96 (99).

Northern Lights

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK99.00) - Tough crowd to please

Despite the solid Q1 results, confirming the ongoing strength in the car carrier shipping market, the share price dropped. We find deep value in the stock, now trading at a 47% discount to its market-adjusted book value, supported by 87% of the current market cap expected in cash flow to equity by end-2025 due to increasing durations based on attractive volume contract renewals de-risking the investment case. In contrast to shaky investor sentiment, we reiterate our BUY and NOK99 target price.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK99.00) - China in the driver’s seat

We find the stock attractively priced based on the solid earnings foundation built from the bullish momentum we see persisting this year. Advantageous Chinese vehicle export growth is amplifying an already-tight market, and we see limited risk to near-term contract renewals. Hence, we believe the company will prove sceptics wrong. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK99 (94).

Generally an optimistic bunch

DNB hosted its 16th annual Energy & Shipping Conference. On day two, we hosted sector panels and presentations for dry bulk, LPG, car carriers, LNG and tankers with senior management representatives from 29 shipping companies. A resurging Chinese economy coupled with tight supply outlook, strong demand growth potential and regulations putting pressure to remove older vessels were among the common themes. Overall, the discussions showcase optimism across the sectors.

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK94.00) - Plenty of cash and value

We note the solid cash generation and attractive values of the car carrier stocks despite concerns about a growing orderbook. We believe the current share price values a 12-year old vessel at USD28m in 2025, versus today’s USD66m for a 16-year old, while we expect China’s vehicle exports to offset fleet growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK94 (93).