The markets reacted positively to the Q1 dividend, and we believe most of the current market cap will be distributed over our forecast period. This should offset the long-term structural risks to the sector, as its backlog should fend off any dramatic decline to cash flows. We find the risk/reward still attractive, with potential for re-rating on favourable news flow from a weighty sentiment. Hence, we reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.
The car carriers are seeing a string of bad news hitting an already fragile fundamental S&D outlook. However, we believe the sell-off has more than priced in the potential headwinds and we find the valuation attractive, with significant potential to the upside on possible trade deals and port-fee revisions. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but cut our target price to NOK90 (104).
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...
The Q4 report confirmed to us that the best is probably behind us, as Q1 should see a YOY drop in EBITDA, and mounting uncertainties dampen the car shipping market outlook. However, we believe substantial cash flows for 2025–2027e should limit the downside risk. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK104 (116).
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