Still strong rates, now at 40% yield

Net rates of USD 88.8/CBM in October, up 6% from September. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have reduced our Q4 2024 and 2025 adj. EBITDA estimates slightly in light of the Q3 report. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price to NOK152 (149). We find yesterday’s share-price reaction a reflection of overall deteriorating sentiment across the shipping sector, but believe the muted guidance should prompt downward revisions to a perhaps overly optimistic consensus. Still, potentially lasting cash flow...

DPS of NOK 110 from now to end-'26

Beat on DPS, but somewhat soft Q4 guidance

EBITDA USD 177m (ABGSC USD 178m, cons USD 183m). Q4 EBITDA to be "...in line with the last nine months run rate". Share up 0-2%.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the monthly trading updates from the company and other minor forecast changes. Stronger freight rates were mostly offset by lower volumes, and imply limited changes to our forecasts and valuation. Headline revenues have been pre-announced and leave limited potential for surprises (mainly on the cost side), in our view. However, cash proceeds from the sale of two vessels in Q3 leave scope for a meaningful dividend, and we forecast USD1.45/share versus conse...

More contract announcements in the pipeline

Q3 results "more or less in line with Q2"

Net rates of USD 83.8/CBM in September, down 6% from August. ~5% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to trade down 1-3%.

Another ATH net rate

Net rates of USD 88.9/CBM in August, up 2% from July. ~6% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to trade up 2-4%,

ABGSC Shipping Daily 21 August

Mixed tanker and dry bulk market, LPG up. Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.83x. Definitive findings of anti-subsidy investigation (draft) - Tariffs adjusted. EU tariffs on Chinese passenger EVs - Any effects yet?. Chinese passenger car export grows despite flattening in Europe.

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK153.00) - Producing substantial payo...

We find the company’s outlook into H2 supportive of continued strong cash flow yield, and the company is sticking to its policy of churning out excess cash as dividends. Thus, the announced USD120m vessel sales in Q3 should beef up the Q3 dividend to NOK15/share on our numbers. Further, we estimate 60% of today’s market cap should be covered by distributions by end-2026. We reiterate our BUY and NOK153 target price.

DPS of NOK 106 from Q3'24e to Q4'26e

Beat in Q2, but unclear guiding for Q3

EBITDA USD 174m (ABGSC USD 161m, cons USD 172m). Q3 to be "...more or less in line with Q2". Share price up 1-2%.

All-time high rates in July

Net rates of USD 87.2/CBM in July, up 4.9% from June. ~3% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to up 3-5%.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have lowered our EBITDA estimates by a rather even 2.6% for each of our forecast years 2024-2026e in light of the company’s recent monthly updates and latest market trends. We expect Q2 EBITDA of USD168m, which is 8% below consensus, and a DPS of USD0.58, giving a 24% run-rate yield. The report is due at 07:30 CET on 14 August. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have cut our target price to NOK153 (161), mainly due to a NOK6.3 D...

Potential tightness to '27 on Red Sea closure

Red Sea closure stretches extreme tightness into '27. Red Sea to stay closed – net rates up, volumes down. TP NOK 194 (203) – BUY.

Slightly higher rates, lower volume

Net rates of USD 83.1/CBM in June, up 0.1% from May. ~16% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Share to trade down 0-1%.

Flat from April, below ABGSCe

Net rates of USD 83.0/CBM in April, down 0.6% from April. ~12% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Flat rates warrants a flat share price reaction.

Higher contract share of 75%

Net rates of USD 83.5/CBM in April, down 1% from March. ~12% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Share to trade down 1-2%.

Grimaldi acquires ~5% stake in HAUTO

Grimaldi acquires a 5.12% stake in HAUTO. Who is Grimaldi? HAUTO current NAV of NOK 134/sh adj. dividend paid yesterday

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.