CMD: Educational, but no breaking news

Educational presentation, but minor news. No further NBs, upsizing 4/12 NBs from 9,300 to 11,700 CEUs. Slightly positive for the share.

Another ATH net rate

Net rates of USD 88.9/CBM in August, up 2% from July. ~6% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to trade up 2-4%,

ABGSC Shipping Daily 21 August

Mixed tanker and dry bulk market, LPG up. Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.83x. Definitive findings of anti-subsidy investigation (draft) - Tariffs adjusted. EU tariffs on Chinese passenger EVs - Any effects yet?. Chinese passenger car export grows despite flattening in Europe.

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK153.00) - Producing substantial payo...

We find the company’s outlook into H2 supportive of continued strong cash flow yield, and the company is sticking to its policy of churning out excess cash as dividends. Thus, the announced USD120m vessel sales in Q3 should beef up the Q3 dividend to NOK15/share on our numbers. Further, we estimate 60% of today’s market cap should be covered by distributions by end-2026. We reiterate our BUY and NOK153 target price.

DPS of NOK 106 from Q3'24e to Q4'26e

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK150.00) - Leaving money on the t...

The company is paying out a considerable USD1.75 per share dividend in 2024, which includes the H1 2024 and the entire 2023 DPS, but an extraordinary dividend has yet to materialise despite a vast cash position and still-strong outlook. We forecast in excess of NOK70/share available for distribution by end-2026. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK150 (145).

Beat in Q2, but unclear guiding for Q3

EBITDA USD 174m (ABGSC USD 161m, cons USD 172m). Q3 to be "...more or less in line with Q2". Share price up 1-2%.

Special dividend postponed

Another solid quarter, but no special dividend

EBITDA of USD 507m (+3% vs. ABGSC, +7% vs. cons). Logistics and Government above ABGSCe, Shipping below. Q2 beat countered by no special dividends.

All-time high rates in July

Net rates of USD 87.2/CBM in July, up 4.9% from June. ~3% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to up 3-5%.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK145.00) - Extraordinary dividend...

We have updated our model for the announced MIRRAT sale, EUKOR accounting changes and recent market developments, ending up largely aligned with consensus adj. EBITDA for 2024–2026e. While we are below for Q2e, we believe the company has ample firepower for a sizeable extraordinary dividend. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK145 (154).

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have lowered our EBITDA estimates by a rather even 2.6% for each of our forecast years 2024-2026e in light of the company’s recent monthly updates and latest market trends. We expect Q2 EBITDA of USD168m, which is 8% below consensus, and a DPS of USD0.58, giving a 24% run-rate yield. The report is due at 07:30 CET on 14 August. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have cut our target price to NOK153 (161), mainly due to a NOK6.3 D...

Potential tightness to '27 on Red Sea closure

Red Sea closure stretches extreme tightness into '27. Red Sea to stay closed – net rates up, volumes down. TP NOK 194 (203) – BUY.

Extreme market tightness could last into '27

Red Sea closure stretches extreme tightness into '27. Red Sea to stay closed – net rates up, volumes down. TP NOK 194 (203) – BUY.

Slightly higher rates, lower volume

Net rates of USD 83.1/CBM in June, up 0.1% from May. ~16% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Share to trade down 0-1%.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK154.00) - Revealing put-option l...

The company is set to implement a reporting change that will considerably impair equity, while highlighting potential challenges in ongoing contract discussions.

Change in accounting treatment of EUKOR

Change in methodology implies equity reductions of USD 977. Symmetrical strike price set at P/E of 10x. Negative share price reaction of 2-4% expected.

Flat from April, below ABGSCe

Net rates of USD 83.0/CBM in April, down 0.6% from April. ~12% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Flat rates warrants a flat share price reaction.

Leverage too low, more dividends needed

Q2 will likely see the first special dividend. '25e EBITDA +24% vs. consensus. TP NOK 203 (200) – BUY.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...