Still strong rates, now at 40% yield

Net rates of USD 88.8/CBM in October, up 6% from September. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates owing to Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s Q3 results, which were broadly in line with our estimates and prompted limited underlying revisions. Hence, we continue to see considerable cash flow inbound (NOK62/share FCFE for 2025–2026e and NOK29/share excess long-term cash) that should be directed towards attractive shareholder returns in the years ahead, as we expect contracts to be renewed at better rates with decent visibility. We do not consider these changes to be material,...

'25e to be much better than '24e

Q3 slightly below cons, but several one-offs

Adj. EBITDA of USD 504m (-6% vs. ABGSC, -2% vs. cons). Shipping, Logistics and Holdings below, beat in Government. Q3 miss on higher costs, no other notable news.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have reduced our Q4 2024 and 2025 adj. EBITDA estimates slightly in light of the Q3 report. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price to NOK152 (149). We find yesterday’s share-price reaction a reflection of overall deteriorating sentiment across the shipping sector, but believe the muted guidance should prompt downward revisions to a perhaps overly optimistic consensus. Still, potentially lasting cash flow...

DPS of NOK 110 from now to end-'26

Beat on DPS, but somewhat soft Q4 guidance

EBITDA USD 177m (ABGSC USD 178m, cons USD 183m). Q4 EBITDA to be "...in line with the last nine months run rate". Share up 0-2%.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the monthly trading updates from the company and other minor forecast changes. Stronger freight rates were mostly offset by lower volumes, and imply limited changes to our forecasts and valuation. Headline revenues have been pre-announced and leave limited potential for surprises (mainly on the cost side), in our view. However, cash proceeds from the sale of two vessels in Q3 leave scope for a meaningful dividend, and we forecast USD1.45/share versus conse...

All eyes on new contracts

More contract announcements in the pipeline

Q3 results "more or less in line with Q2"

Net rates of USD 83.8/CBM in September, down 6% from August. ~5% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to trade down 1-3%.

CMD: Educational, but no breaking news

Educational presentation, but minor news. No further NBs, upsizing 4/12 NBs from 9,300 to 11,700 CEUs. Slightly positive for the share.

Another ATH net rate

Net rates of USD 88.9/CBM in August, up 2% from July. ~6% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to trade up 2-4%,

ABGSC Shipping Daily 21 August

Mixed tanker and dry bulk market, LPG up. Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.83x. Definitive findings of anti-subsidy investigation (draft) - Tariffs adjusted. EU tariffs on Chinese passenger EVs - Any effects yet?. Chinese passenger car export grows despite flattening in Europe.

Höegh Autoliners ASA (Buy, TP: NOK153.00) - Producing substantial payo...

We find the company’s outlook into H2 supportive of continued strong cash flow yield, and the company is sticking to its policy of churning out excess cash as dividends. Thus, the announced USD120m vessel sales in Q3 should beef up the Q3 dividend to NOK15/share on our numbers. Further, we estimate 60% of today’s market cap should be covered by distributions by end-2026. We reiterate our BUY and NOK153 target price.

DPS of NOK 106 from Q3'24e to Q4'26e

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK150.00) - Leaving money on the t...

The company is paying out a considerable USD1.75 per share dividend in 2024, which includes the H1 2024 and the entire 2023 DPS, but an extraordinary dividend has yet to materialise despite a vast cash position and still-strong outlook. We forecast in excess of NOK70/share available for distribution by end-2026. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK150 (145).

Beat in Q2, but unclear guiding for Q3

EBITDA USD 174m (ABGSC USD 161m, cons USD 172m). Q3 to be "...more or less in line with Q2". Share price up 1-2%.

Special dividend postponed

Another solid quarter, but no special dividend

EBITDA of USD 507m (+3% vs. ABGSC, +7% vs. cons). Logistics and Government above ABGSCe, Shipping below. Q2 beat countered by no special dividends.