Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Cool Company (Buy, TP: NOK133.00) - Upside potential outweighs risk

Despite soft freight markets, we believe Cool Company offers attractive upside potential at the current valuation, trading at an average 2025–2026e EV/EBITDA of 7.0x (FLNG 9.5x). If we assume spot rates matching opex translates to 10.0x, spot rates equal to the YTD 3-year TC rates would calculate to 6.2x (or NOK195/share at an 8.0x EV/EBITDA). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK133 (160).

Q3 in line, DPS cut by 63%

EBITDA of USD 58m (ABGSCe at USD 59m, cons at USD 57m). Cuts back on dividend, introduces buybacks. Share to trade down 5% or more vs. peers.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Contract coverage turns MTM positive

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK335.00) - 13% yield highly appealing

Flex LNG remains insulated in a challenging freight market, with only one vessel open into a potentially poor 2025, while the two positions for 2026 are still likely to see options extended into 2028. Lower rates have led to our minor near-term adjustments, but we see no reason to doubt its USD0.75 quarterly DPS, offering an attractive 13% dividend yield into better markets. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK335 (345).

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Q3 as guided, Q4 guided as expected

EBITDA of USD 70m (ABGSC and cons at 70m). Q4'24 guidance in line with expectations. Share to trade flat to slightly down vs peers.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Handling the hybrid bond is key

Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK79.00) - Improving performance

Following the Q3 results, we have greater confidence in the company’s organic growth trends in Laundry and the US Food & Beverage segment (on growing sales to chains and institutional customer demand looking set to improve). This should support higher than previously estimated margin improvement. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK79 (71).

Market has turned south, but still too cheap

Market outlook weakens further

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Latin America the main attraction

We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK180 (175) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 1–3%. Latin America continued to surprise on the upside, and upcoming Brazilian regulation presents an interesting growth opportunity. We find the valuation attractive (trading at a 2025e FCF yield of 13% and P/E of 7x) in light of a 2023–2026e EBIT CAGR of 14% with a positive earnings revisions trend.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix