Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Soft Q1, but with bright spots

We consider the Q1 results slightly on the soft side (with organic volume misses across the board), albeit less so adjusted for the loss of the San Miguel contract. Despite the general weakness, there were a couple of bright spots, including positive commentary on the premium beer market in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Finland lags behind

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Growth agenda back in focus

The Q1 results were mixed, but with the financials now in good order, we see more of a growth focus ahead. We find management’s priorities logical, with our underlying forecast largely unchanged, but our 2025–2027e EPS cut by 6–2% on FX and non-cash items. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK52 (53), focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.

Slight miss on adj. EBIT

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1075.00) - Expect flat start to 2025e

We expect Carlsberg to report a slow start to the year, mainly related to the loss of the San Miguel contract and the timing of Easter. However, we believe this should not come as a surprise, and thus expect the 2025 guidance to be maintained. At a 12-month forward P/E of c14x, we still find the stock attractive, with further upside potential from better-than-expected execution of Britvic and any improvement in China. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,075 target price.

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Stolt-Nielsen Limited: 1 director

A director at Stolt-Nielsen Limited bought 5,000 shares at 222.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Positive Easter effect

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK470.00) - Don’t stop believin’

While lower chemical volumes weighed on Stolt-Nielsen’s earnings and Q2 guidance, we see a positive trend in the early innings, with chemical volumes up 10% MOM in March and accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, to potentially re-ignite more positive tanker sentiment. We find the stock attractive at a 2025–2026e average P/E of 3.8x (tanker peers: 5.1x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK470 (480).

Small Q1 miss, partly countered by share buybacks