HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: stellar 3Q24 print sponsored by OTP RO integration POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q24 results – small beat; FY24E guidance reiterated; buyback programme expires POSITIVE • Sok Marketler: highly weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q24 broadly in line with recent trends NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: weak 3Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 3Q24 results highlights – improved outlook NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: Oc...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 2Q24 results – recently-announced miss caused by higher costs and negative revaluations in Spain NEUTRAL • Eurocash: weak 2Q24 across the board NEGATIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q24 review – net profit down 10% yoy, 7% above the consensus POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA slightly below our expectations, but bottom line boosted by associates NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA flat yoy, 2% above the market consensus; bottom-line miss on revaluation of...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
ONE United Properties (ONE) has quickly become a household name in Romania, and we believe that its projects include some of the most sought-after addresses in the city. The speed of the ramping up of its operations delivered by the team is impressive, and the volume of sales closed in 2023 exceeded our expectations. That said, against the backdrop of the softer gross profit margin (albeit to still very solid levels of 25-30%) and the fairly low yield generated by the standing assets, the valuat...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: M&A remain the main source of growth (stays HOLD) • Banca Transilvania: strong NII and NIM expansion in 4Q23 results POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Akcansa: 2023 financial results review NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: FY23 consolidated net profit 5% above preliminary figure (stand-alone) NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: reaches EBITDA (excluding revaluations) of EUR 59m in 2023 NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 2028 strategy update NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Kazakhstan macro: early takes on the resignation of the government • Shoper: preliminary 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA up 17% yoy, 13% above our forecast POSITIVE • European Oil and Gas Monthly: January 2024 – refining margins benefit from geopolitics • ONE United Properties: FY23 trading update • Ten Square Games: PLN 3.3m loss from associates (Gamesture) to be booked in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: new CEO appointed at the EGM NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: real users in January...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • GTC: 3Q23 - decides not to pursue Ultima deal POSITIVE • Dom Development: 3Q23 in line, management concerns about the sustainability of subsidised mortgages NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 9M23 trading update sees continued growth in footfall and average spend per visit POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - staying the course, covering ground • Romgaz: 3Q23 conference call takeaways • Patria Bank: 3Q23 results - we...
ONE United Properties (ONE) reported its 3Q23 results on 14 November. Despite the challenging backdrop of high rates, ONE has defied the trend so far this year, increasing the number of sold apartments yoy in a shrinking market. Construction costs have stabilised, and ONE is progressing with the construction of its projects: it may deliver over 1k apartments to clients this year. With its strong balance sheet and low leverage, it continues to secure land plots for future projects.
HEADLINES: • Transelectrica: 3Q23 results in line with our expectations, but weak yoy performance might surprise NEGATIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 3Q23 results - better margins than expected • DIGI Communications: 3Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 18% yoy, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: 3Q23 results review - EBITDA up 7% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - gross profit margin at 27%, rental income of EUR 5m for the quarter • Bank of Cyprus: 3Q2...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Greece macro: still on a promising growth trajectory • Jahez: 1H23 earnings miss, announces 20:1 stock split NEGATIVE • 4iG: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 August-3 September) • Wizz Air: trends in August little changed vs. July NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: August bookings estimate up 23% mom, driven by the flagship games POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: August bookings flat mom, Wings of Heroes up slightly NEUTRAL • ONE United Propert...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 2Q23 results stronger than expected, dividend yield due next week POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q23 below our forecasts, in line with consensus; CDR satisfied with PL pre-orders NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 10% yoy, 5% above the market consensus POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 2Q23 - gross profit of EUR 16m, on 28% GPM, FY guidance reiterated • Sphera Group: minor miss in 2Q23 due to high base of post COVID-19 recovery NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: 1...
ONE's 2Q23 results were as a slight miss vs. our expectations, driven mainly by the lower gross profit margin. The company attributes this to a higher share of early-stage projects (which earn lower margin) in the revenue mix, and maintains its longer-term GPM guidance of 35+%. We see the guidance as ambitious, and we see downside for our FY estimates. With its strong balance sheet, low leverage, and sought-after projects, ONE is using the current challenging high-rate backdrop to continue to ex...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: don't stop me now (stays BUY) • ONE United Properties: 2Q23 - gross profit of EUR 16m, on 28% GPM, guidance reiterated NEGATIVE • Eurocash: minor miss in 2Q23 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 2Q23 results - sales down 26% yoy, to PLN 10.34m, 8% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Banca Transilvania: 2Q23 conference call takeaways • Inter Cars: more details on the capex...
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