We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).
While we acknowledge Nokian Tyres’ ‘local-to-local’ approach in the US may shelter it from worst tariff impacts, we believe increased uncertainty on consumer sentiment in North America could lead to weaker demand for its high-value premium range in the short term, raising the risk of fixed-cost under-absorption and partly offsetting potentially better EBIT drop-through from Romania (Q2 onwards). We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to EUR6.3 (6.7), following a c9% clean EBIT cut ...
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