Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK530.00) - Bullish sentiment to reawaken

We believe the tanker market should improve from recent softness and see solid rates towards end-2024e and into 2025–2026e, with chemical tanker rates to be fuelled by improving chemical trade, a still healthy orderbook, and reduced swing tonnage. We calculate a 19% average 2025–2026e earnings yield, and believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as an appealing tanker exposure, trading at a 2025–2026e average EV/EBITDA of 4.1x (tanker peer group: 4.6x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...

Q4 tanker estimates down on lower guidance

Q4 tanker estimates down on lower guidance. ABGSCe in line with cons. for '25e EBITDA. TP NOK 515 (521), BUY.

Q3 miss and guides for lower TCE in Q4

Adj. EBITDA of USD 208m 4% below cons, 7% below ABGSCe. Segments: Terminals and Containers above expectations, Tankers and Sea Farm below. Guides for "lower" Tanker TCE, share to trade down 2-4%.

Dependent on a strong crude tanker market

Chemical tanker rates in seasonal decline, but still up y-o-y. ABGSCe +7% vs. cons. '25e EBITDA. TP NOK 521 (535), BUY.

Stolt-Nielsen Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates ahead of the Q3 results (due prior to market open on 2 October) on our reduced near-term rate forecasts for Stolt Tankers following the recent softness in tanker freight markets. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have lowered our target price from NOK560 to NOK533, partly due to currency effects.

Nobia (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Nobia. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Stolt-Nielsen Minor model adjustments

We have updated our model following the Q2 report. We still believe the underlying result was broadly in line with expectations, and the headline miss is mostly explained by one-off effects, thus we find yesterday’s share price reaction unwarranted. We estimate an 18% earnings yield the next four quarters, with the longevity of the current robust earnings supported by appealing fundamentals (orderbook-to-fleet ratio of 10%) and solid MR markets (average spot rate last month ~60% above the 5-year...

Rates guided up again in Q3

Minor adjustments, guidance better than expected. ABGSCe +4% vs. cons. '25e EBITDA. TP NOK 532 (559), BUY.

Q2 miss, good guiding for Q3

Adj. EBITDA of USD 209m 2% below cons, 7% below ABGSCe. Segments: Terminals, Containers and Sea farm above expectations, Tankers below. Guides Tanker TCE 2-4% higher in Q2, share to trade flat.

Chemical tanker rates at ATH levels in Q2

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK567.00) - Exceptional market likely to pers...

We believe Stolt-Nielsen is well positioned to capitalise on the strong market for Tankers, with an above-average spot exposure allowing for healthy COA renewals. Furthermore, we see potential for the super-cycle to persist on a 10% orderbook-to-fleet and average fleet age of >17 years. Thus, we estimate an appealing 16% average earnings yield until 2026. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK567 (555).

Nobia AB: 1 director

A director at Nobia AB sold 103,000 shares at 4.922SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 64/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.10) - Soft project market

We have cut our 2024e adj. EBIT by 17%, mainly on lower margin assumptions for Nordic. Nobia expects continued challenging market conditions in 2024 (driven by the project segment), and plans to reduce its fixed cost base further. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5.1 (5.0) on valuation.