Post-Q1: rising fear creates opportunities

Tariff-induced earnings lift coming in Q2e

Strong Q1, higher volumes and prices in Q2

In-line report a relief

Heads-up for report 29 April

Fairly in line volumes, EBIT, and Q2 guidance

Alleima (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - Good growth in the right places

We were encouraged by the Q1 report that showed ongoing good organic growth and a favourable mix along with solid operations. Given a strong leading market position in select areas within oil & gas, nuclear, and medical, we believe Alleima is well positioned for solid earnings despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, FX headwinds, and a possible economic slowdown. Due to our more positive view on top-line growth for the tube division, we have raised our underlying 2025–2026e EBITDA by...

Big estimate cuts already reflected in the share

Clouds on the horizon despite a strong Q1

Above on orders, org. growth, and adj. EBIT

5% adj. EBIT excl. PIR beat

Heads-up for report 23 April

Alleima (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Pricing power and excess cash

Reflecting overall deteriorating macro conditions and a worsened FX situation, we have cut our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by 7–13%. Nevertheless, with the majority of earnings from robust end-markets, underpinned by convincing megatrends, we find Alleima still looks set to generate attractive profits in most feasible scenarios. With the stock down c20% in the past month, our updated forecasts translate into attractive multiples, while we believe the company’s net cash position could facilitate bolt-...

Trough P/B multiples in prior cycles

Sector previews: A complex macro-cocktail

Volume growth and value support

Focus on Americas Q2 price guidance

Estimate risk keeps us cautious

Q2e is the cash flow inflection point

Raises SEK 3.75bn at 3.4% discount