HEADLINES: • Orlen: announces updated budget for the New Chemistry Project NEUTRAL • PGE: full 4Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: 1Q26 sales down 12.5% yoy, to PLN 19.3m NEGATIVE • Budimex: 1Q26E preview – harsh winter weighs on results (due on 6 May)
HEADLINES: • Auto Partner: 4Q25 EBITDA 4% above the consensus and 5% below our estimate NEUTRAL • Murapol: 4Q25 conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Enea: proposes PLN 0.56 DPS from the 2025 profit NEUTRAL • PGE: recommends no dividend payment for 2025 NEUTRAL • PZU: conclusion of competition for Management Board member – former CFO not on the list • CEZ: PM Babis says first steps towards privatisation at upcoming AGM NEUTRAL • Arcelik: 1Q26E earnings preview (due on 22 April) • Short News (CBF)
HEADLINES: • Czechoslovak Group: ReArming Europe – from ammo to armour (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Develia: strong handovers in 1Q26 (2.3x higher yoy), slightly disappointing sales (10% lower yoy) NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q26 trading update NEUTRAL • Kruk: recommends PLN 20 DPS • Huuuge Games: preliminary 1Q26 revenue at USD 56.5m, down 9% yoy and 4% qoq NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 190m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 1Q26E NEUTRAL • Budimex: FBSerwis to remain within the group NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Allwyn: over the hills and far away – from OPAP to Allwyn, and into growth (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 6% yoy, 6% above the consensus POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: net addition of 126.5k sports cards in 1Q26, solid growth in Poland POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q25 results call NEUTRAL • Budimex: PLN 146m bid selected as most advantageous in Port Polska tender NEUTRAL • Budimex: signs PLN 261m tram depot contract...
EME Equity Market – March 2026 All indices decline, with Greek ASE posting the steepest loss. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 8.0% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in USD terms in March. The Greek ASE was the worst performer (-9.3% mom); followed by the Czech PX (-6.7% mom); the Hungarian BUX (-6.2% mom); the Turkish ISE30 (-5.1% mom); and the Polish WIG20 (-4.5% mom; all in EUR terms). The Romanian BET proved the most resilient, declining just 1.2% mom, in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Asseco Poland: 4Q25 review – net profit up 4.5x yoy, in line with the consensus; 2026 backlog up 19% yoy NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 4Q25 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • Kety: preliminary 1Q26 EBITDA and net profit above our expectations POSITIVE • PGE: decent 4Q25 preliminary results (adjusted recurring EBITDA 17% above expectations), distorted by one-offs POSITIVE • Tauron: 4Q25 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: announces tender to acquire own...
HEADLINES: • Dino Polska: 12-15% EBITDA miss in 4Q25; bearish guidance for 2026E NEGATIVE • Budimex: full 4Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends DPS of PLN 32.42 from the 2025 earnings (4.9% DY) POSITIVE • Inter Cars: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Kety: full 4Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Murapol: Hampont files for sole control acquisition of Murapol NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: acquires InfraRed Asso...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25 results - adj. EBITDA -5% yoy, 2% below consensus; gloomy outlook for 1Q26E and subsequent quarters NEGATIVE • Bank Handlowy: to book PLN 132.5m of resolution fund charges this year NEUTRAL • PKO BP: to book PLN 487m of annual resolution fund charges in 2026E NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games – 4Q25 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: acquires InfraRed Associates for USD 8.4m POSITIVE • Colt CZ: 4Q25 results and FY26 guidance xx POSITIVE • Hungary macro...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bid or no bid? • Bank Handlowy: solid 4Q25, giving support to strong dividend yield expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 4Q25 – a good end to a record year NEUTRAL • Tauron: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 7% below our expectations, following provisions in the Supply segment; adjusted EBITDA 11% above our forecast POSITIVE • Budimex: KIO orders rejection of company’s offer in Rail Baltica tender NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: PLN 40.6m provision to be created in the 4Q25E results NEG...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: the state of consumption in EEMEA • Budimex: PKP PLK cancels selection of the company’s offer in PLN 1.1bn rail tender NEGATIVE • Budimex: offer selected in PLN 300m PSE tender for expansion of Gdańsk Błonia substation NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: write-down of Szallas Group assets reduces WPL's operating result by PLN 150m NEGATIVE • Wirtualna Polska: accounting policy change increases dividend capacity by c.PLN 518m NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25E preview upda...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: 4Q25 – below both our and the consensus estimates • Bank Pekao: management proposes PLN 19.77 DPS • PGE: URE orders PLN 605m payment to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • OPAP: online competition in Greece set to intensify as Superbet preps market entry NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: CBT on hold, as expected
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: solid 4Q25 numbers – small bottom-line beat, but underlying trends in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25 above the consensus; FY26E guidance in line with our expectations POSITIVE • Orlen: submits new non-binding offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: small 4Q25 beat on EBITDA, 2026E guidance below the consensus NEGATIVE • Colt CZ Group: planning dual AEX listing and a capital increase POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: two exploration projects in Bulgaria now NEUT...
HEADLINES: • BIM: 4Q25 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Enea: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 25% below expectations on Supply one-offs; adjusted EBITDA 2% below forecast NEUTRAL • Enea / Tauron: URE orders additional payments to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • PGE: completes acquisition of 350 MW Bałtyk II offshore wind project from RWE NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: PLN 10.7m impairment losses to spoil otherwise strong quarter (due on 23 March) NEGATIVE • Footshop: preliminary 4Q25 resul...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: oil price spike negative NEGATIVE • Budimex: PLN 2.59bn rail contract signed with PKP PLK NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: February sales growth of 3.4% yoy NEGATIVE • Diagnostyka: 4Q25E preview – 8% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 20 April) NEUTRAL • CEZ: 4Q25E earnings preview (due on 12 March) • Jumbo: February sales growth slows to 3% yoy on tough comps, as expected NEUTRAL • Mavi: 4Q25E earnings preview (due on 17 March) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (27 Febru...
HEADLINES: • Modivo Group: the role of a serial disruptor is never easy (stays BUY) • Budimex: built on solid ground, priced for perfection (HOLD - transfer of coverage) • Budimex: 4Q25 conference highlights NEUTRAL • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call POSITIVE • Vercom: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call POSITIVE • PGE: PLN 12.1bn loan impairment recognised in stand-alone accounts NEGATIVE • Rainbow Tours: summer 2026E season pre-sales accelerate to +10.9% yo...
We transfer coverage of Budimex (BDX) and downgrade our rating to HOLD (from Buy), with a 12M price target (PT) of PLN 853 (vs. PLN 750 previously), implying 9% upside. After two years of relatively flat results in 2024-25, we expect 2026-27E to mark a return to double-digit yoy growth in both revenues and the order backlog. We forecast a solid EBIT CAGR of 11% for 2025-28E, supported by accelerating public infrastructure spending and improving contract flow. At the same time, we believe the cur...
February developments have been left in the dust with the opening days of March and the conflict in the Gulf. Oil and gas prices are up; we have already seen refining margins soar; and maybe even petrochemical margins can enjoy a moment in the sunshine.
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