The Q1 report was largely as expected, albeit with support in the results related to mostly passing effects. Hence, we retain our view that the chronic oversupply of vessels will deteriorate the current value of the company. On rates converging towards 2016 levels, it should burn through more than USD13bn by the end of our forecast period, with no respite in sight due to the towering orderbook and owners still willing to order. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,400 ...
We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).
The markets reacted positively to the Q1 dividend, and we believe most of the current market cap will be distributed over our forecast period. This should offset the long-term structural risks to the sector, as its backlog should fend off any dramatic decline to cash flows. We find the risk/reward still attractive, with potential for re-rating on favourable news flow from a weighty sentiment. Hence, we reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.
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