ABGSC Shipping Daily 29 November

Container spot rates up again 3% w-o-w, contract rates flat, HAUTO signs 2-year contract with a "major international car producer", Flex LNG announces 15yr time charter for Flex Constellation

ABGSC Shipping Daily 27 November

ABGSC Shipping Daily 26 November

Contract coverage turns MTM positive

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK335.00) - 13% yield highly appealing

Flex LNG remains insulated in a challenging freight market, with only one vessel open into a potentially poor 2025, while the two positions for 2026 are still likely to see options extended into 2028. Lower rates have led to our minor near-term adjustments, but we see no reason to doubt its USD0.75 quarterly DPS, offering an attractive 13% dividend yield into better markets. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK335 (345).

Q3 as guided, Q4 guided as expected

EBITDA of USD 70m (ABGSC and cons at 70m). Q4'24 guidance in line with expectations. Share to trade flat to slightly down vs peers.

Still strong rates, now at 40% yield

Net rates of USD 88.8/CBM in October, up 6% from September. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK11700.00) - Anchored by challenges

We fail to be excited by the largely pre-announced Q3 and recently revised guidance, but concede the valuation in Maersk looks depressed, albeit for a very good reason. More newbuild orders from the latest cash build mean another delivery wave on top of an already structurally overbuilt industry. We remain muted on the sector and reiterate our HOLD, and have lowered our target price to DKK11,700 (11,500).

New guidance already looks conservative

Solid report; FY guidance looks low

Q3'24 as pre-announced last week. Segments - Beat in all segments. Freight rates better than modelled, share up 1-3%.

Market outlook weakens further

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have reduced our Q4 2024 and 2025 adj. EBITDA estimates slightly in light of the Q3 report. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price to NOK152 (149). We find yesterday’s share-price reaction a reflection of overall deteriorating sentiment across the shipping sector, but believe the muted guidance should prompt downward revisions to a perhaps overly optimistic consensus. Still, potentially lasting cash flow...

DPS of NOK 110 from now to end-'26

Beat on DPS, but somewhat soft Q4 guidance

EBITDA USD 177m (ABGSC USD 178m, cons USD 183m). Q4 EBITDA to be "...in line with the last nine months run rate". Share up 0-2%.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the monthly trading updates from the company and other minor forecast changes. Stronger freight rates were mostly offset by lower volumes, and imply limited changes to our forecasts and valuation. Headline revenues have been pre-announced and leave limited potential for surprises (mainly on the cost side), in our view. However, cash proceeds from the sale of two vessels in Q3 leave scope for a meaningful dividend, and we forecast USD1.45/share versus conse...

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK11500.00) - Likely topping out in Q3

While the Q3 results posted a ~USD1bn beat to our and consensus expectations likely due to stronger container shipping markets, we believe the implications for long-term estimates are limited, as its updated guidance indicates a ~USD2bn QOQ decline for Q4. Hence, the Q3 beat on a stand-alone basis would add up to 4% to the market cap, all else equal.

Guidance upgrade equals 5% of market cap

Q3'24 EBITDA of USD 4.8bn (ABGSCe at USD 4.5, cons. at USD 3.6). Increases full year guidance - Not unexpected. Higher guidance warrants a positive share price reaction.

Q3e EBITDA lifted 32%; consensus too low

YTD container demand growth of 18%. Consensus too low for Q3; potential guidance upgrade for '24. TP of DKK 14,300 (14,550) – BUY.

More contract announcements in the pipeline

Q3 results "more or less in line with Q2"

Net rates of USD 83.8/CBM in September, down 6% from August. ~5% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q3'24e. Share to trade down 1-3%.