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Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Roy Külter ... (+2)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

Vastned : Q3 2024 trading update: Vastned is changing for the better

>End of disposal program, occupancy slightly down, negative impact new leases - Vastned reported its Q3 trading update this morning, after Vastned Belgium (ca. 20% of NAV) was already out with its Q3 results before. Vastned today reported the following:FY2024 outlook reiterated for direct result p/sh at € 1.75 - € 1.85 and will pay-out an interim-dividend of € 1.70 on 6 December 2024.Occupancy rate 98.0% (H1 2024: 98.6%). In the Netherlands, the occupancy ra...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Acomo: Hot Chocolate. Azelis: 3Q24 not flawless, but organic growth is back. BE Semiconductor Industries: 3Q24 results, putting its money where its mouth is. Ebusco: Rigorous turnaround plan, but many liquidity related concerns; recommendation moves to Under Review. GBL: Looking to take vitamins. Kinepolis: Solid 3Q24 attendance, in line, confident in the movie outlook for 4Q24, 2025. Ontex: Guidance Stumble. Unilever: Momentum maintained. Vastned: End of the disposal program, wa...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come

The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir

La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Colruyt: FY24/25 guidance reiterated. Fastned: Preferred bidder for new JV. Vastned: Merger between Vastned Retail and Vastned Belgium approved

Gerardo Ibanez ... (+3)
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Dutch transfer tax to be reduced to 8%, supporting NAV and LTVs...

>Dutch real estate transfer tax to be reduced from 10.4% to 8% - The Dutch government will reduce the transfer tax for commercial buyers to 8%, according to leaked documents that newspaper De Telegraaf released. This is still more than the 6% it was before 2021, but less than the current 10.4%. The budget has now been sent to the Council of State. On “Prinsjesdag”, September 17, the House of Representatives will officially receive the plans, and the budget will be mad...

Roy Külter ... (+2)
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

Vastned : H1 2024 results: Awaiting EGM’s

>Guidance unchanged, no update on merger process - Outlook FY2024 of direct result of € 1.75 to € 1.85 per share reiteratedNo update on the merger process, extraordinary general meetings expected in September.Occupancy rate 98.6% at end of the quarter (Q1 2024: 98.9%)For H1 2024 27 new leases were signed (4.6% of total rent roll), leading to an increase of 0.7% vs in-place rents (FY2023 -2.3% lower rents), and 10.4% ahead of ERV.Like for like appra...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: Numbers broadly in line with expectations. Air France-KLM: Costs hurt. Arcadis: Nice beat in 2Q24 and good prospects to continue. BAM: Strong EBITDA, cash flow somewhat weak. BE Semiconductor Industries: 2Q24 results; High-end offsets mainstream. Econocom: Large 1H24 miss, change in management, governance. UCB: Strong 1H24 with slight increase in FY revenue guidance. Unilever: Steadfast. Universal Music Group: Okay headline figures cannot hide serious questions for music label...

David Vagman ... (+4)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Javier Campos Unda

Vastned/Good news priced in/HOLD

After a strong run on the back of the merger news, the share price has seen a correction from mid-June to mid-July while still outperforming the sector since early March. It seems the market has already priced the merger to be successful, with some extra headroom on valuation as the financial burden will be lower than expected after the refinancing operations in September 2024. A 40% LTV and a €500m+ market capitalisation post-merger might put the company in the eyes of the buy-side again. Howev...

Baptiste Salaville ... (+4)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/06/2024

Peu de secteurs polarisent autant que le luxe automobile sportif. A la pointe de l’innovation technologique et artistique pour les uns, il est le reflet d’inégalités excessives pour les autres. Nous estimons que le secteur a un rôle prépondérant à jouer sur l’atténuation du changement climatique, mais aussi l’économie circulaire ou la transition juste. Considérant les impacts, risques et opportunités matériels, nous plaçons Ferrari en Best-in-Class ESG, Porsche en Neutre ESG, et Aston...

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