Q4e: Improving market outlook

Down to HOLD after strong share performance

Down to HOLD after strong share performance

Construction markets at the bottom

Taking a hit from smaller unit deliveries in Q4

Keeping it cautious in 2024

All-time high order intake

Executing on its strategy - BUY

Back to growth despite headwinds

No change in trends in Q4

Public Property Invest (Buy, TP: NOK22.00) - Building its portfolio pr...

Public Property Invest has continued to build its portfolio of high-yielding assets, adding properties worth cNOK810m since mid-December (taking post-Q3 investments to cNOK1.3bn). As a result, we have raised our 2025e revenue by c8.3% and 2026e by 8.6%; however, with an increased share count, the NAV and EPS effect is limited. Our focus in the Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 13 February) will be earnings capacity. We reiterate our BUY and NOK22 target price.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Multiconsult (Hold, TP: NOK225.00) - Time for a breather

Our Q4e EBITA and EPS are broadly in line with consensus, as we cut our Q4e billing ratio on Christmas 2025 calendar effects. We estimate a potential DPS of NOK9, up 12% YOY (in line with consensus). We see upside potential to EPS if the Nordic building markets recover faster than expected and from M&A-driven growth. However, given the share price performance over the past 12 months, we find the valuation fair and have downgraded to HOLD (BUY). We have raised our target price to NOK225 (220) on ...

Norconsult (Hold, TP: NOK48.00) - Taking a neutral stance

We have raised our target price to NOK48 (43). However, with our Q4 2024e and 2025e EPS broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus, and the stock looking fairly valued on 2025–2026e P/E, as well as trading at a premium to less liquid peers but at a discount to Sweco, we have downgraded Norconsult to HOLD (BUY). The Q4 results are due at 07:00 CET on 18 February.

Set for another subdued year

Volatile market interest rates, coupled with rental market weakness, indicate 2025 could be another year of subdued sector performance. The sector is trading at discounts to its historical averages on P/FFO (15.4x NTM) and NAV (26% discount), while the tight implied yield gap looks less appealing. Deleveraging efforts over the past three years have improved EBIT/NIBD metrics and reduced sector risk. We maintain our neutral stance, with one SELL recommendation. Our top sector picks are Balder, Ny...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Transaction volumes on the up

Nordic property transaction volumes improved in December, with strong growth YOY in Norway and Sweden, albeit still far below ATH levels. In other news, Fabege made a mixed-use asset divestment at a 4% discount to BV, while we published Q4 previews for Sagax, Catena, Sveafastigheter and Wallenstam. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.44% for 2024e and 5.06% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Rising SWAP rates hit sector, weak rental update

The sector has traded down in recent weeks on rising long-term SWAP rates, resulting in multiples contraction, but we do not expect significant changes to consensus 2025–2026e FFO/EPS. This week, Corem issued a Q4 net letting-related profit warning, confirming the terminated lease in Stockholm’s Kista district, and Sveafastigheter announced a CFO change. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.42% for 2024e and 5.10% for 2025e.