Cheffelo: better profile but uncertain HelloFresh playbook in the Nord...

Post-Q3, we have left our FY 2024-26 estimates unchanged and stick to our SEK30 PT. Cheffelo proved its ability to quickly return to "profitable growth" mode in 2024 and the growth/profitability profile we foresee is interesting. But uncertainty over competitive dynamics in the Nordics prevents us

Cheffelo: growth/profitability profile starting to improve

Post-Q2, we raise our FY 2024-26 EBIT estimates by 11% and our PT from SEK25 to SEK30 to reflect stronger growth fuelled by better market dynamics and the recent agreement with Middagsfrid, better leverage on fulfilment and slightly less marketing. Cheffelo proved its ability to quickly return to "

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #36

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the US job market that is gradually cooling, prompting investors to bet o

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #33

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a new look at the latest rumors around Shein London IPO. Happy reading!

Cheffelo: yet to prove the sustainability of its new niche player stat...

Cheffelo proved its ability to quickly return to "profitable growth" mode with a 2023-26 CAGR of 4.7%e for sales and 23%e for EBIT. This profile combined with the structurally low capital-intensive meal-kit model theoretically leads to strong FCF generation and a continued generous dividend policy

Cheffelo: model update post-Q3

Post-Q3, we raise our FY 2023-25 sales and EBIT estimates by 5% and 11% to reflect a faster return to growth and stronger cost-cutting efforts on fulfilment. In theory, Cheffelo could be a growth story again with appealing dividend yields ahead, but first, at the 17th November CMD, it will need to

Key takeaways from Instacart's upcoming IPO

With Instacart's IPO approaching, we believe that the targeted valuation of 2.8-3x EV/Sales 2023e will first require that concerns surrounding growth prospects, sustainability in the value chain and social regulations are addressed. More interestingly, the targeted valuation fits perfectly with the

Model update post-Q2 trading statement

Post-Q2 trading update, and ahead of full Q2 results publication on 22nd August, we have updated our model to reflect lower-than-anticipated customer numbers in Q2, ongoing top-line headwinds over H2 and higher marketing costs. FY 2023-25 sales cut by 7%, EBIT by 30% and PT notched down from SEK17

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | LMK Group

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | LMK, AB Inbev, Molson Coors, Food...

Neither a yield nor a growth story at the moment

Post-FY publication and further disappointing customer growth numbers in Q4 2022, we have cut our estimates by c.5% and notched down our PT from SEK21 to SEK17. The year 2022 might have been a trough with the customer decline now set to decelerate before returning to growth over H2 2023, while the

Bryan, Garnier & Co Consumer Daily | Tod's group, LMK, Casino